The Premier League Darts show heads to the Utilita Arena in Newcastle on Thursday night for the fourth evening of action in what we might call the regular season, with the eight dartists playing it out for another £10,000 weekly prize.
Michael van Gerwen has now won the last two weeks of the competition and he’ll go in search of a hat trick of weekly wins but the other seven are beginning to get to grips with the tournament and will be out to claim the money for themselves.
Michael Smith vs Nathan Aspinall
The opening quarter final in week four of the Premier League Darts event sees two men enjoying very different experiences in the competition so far meeting when Michael Smith, the week one winner, takes on Nathan Aspinall, who is yet to win a point this season.
That immediately puts Aspinall under a bit of pressure here because he’ll see the top four are getting a little into the distance but also he will have a professional pride and want to show that he belongs in this company so he’ll be eager to win this one and have a good night in Newcastle. Smith took a lot of the pressure off himself when he won the opening night of the event and he is at a stage where just winning quarter finals regularly will see him remain in the hunt for the tournament so this is a big game for him as well. The big problem with Aspinall right now is the missed doubles and he can’t afford them here because he isn’t going to outscore Smith over 11 legs. I expect Smith to win this but his performances aren’t impressing me enough to go in at odds on. In fact, his performances have been so ordinary that I like his 3 dart average to be under 96.5 here. In seven matches on the floor this week he covered this once and that was with a 96.68 average. He averaged just over 90 in defeat to Rob Cross last week and if Aspinall misses a load of doubles this could quickly turn into one of those where they bring each other down. Generally in this sport the bigger averages come on the floor behind closed doors where there are fewer outside influences and the fact Smith isn’t covering this line on the floor at the minute makes me think he is no guarantee to do it in a match he may well win without needing his best form.
Rob Cross vs Luke Humphries
The second of the Newcastle quarter finals sees the man who lost out in the final last week in Luke Humphries going up against the World Championship semi-finalist Rob Cross, who has two wins from three in quarter finals in this competition.
That will give Cross belief that he can down the world champion here but Humphries looked in very good order last week and wisely took the Players Championship events off earlier in the week to ensure he was fresh for this after a hectic couple of months. Cross won’t have tired himself out at the Players Championship events as he lost in the first round of both of them but he might have done his confidence a bit of a blow and that might be significant here. If the Humphries of last week turns up here, and there is nothing to suggest he won’t, I expect him to win this but we’ve seen plenty of times this season that matches are going to the last leg or two and that makes a handicap unattractive. Humphries is one for the accumulators but not much more.
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Peter Wright vs Luke Littler
The penultimate quarter final of the evening sees two men at different ends of the table in action when Peter Wright, yet to pick up a single point in the competition, takes on Luke Littler who has five points and could put some distance between him and the stragglers with a win here.
Littler is a huge favourite to win this match and based on what we have seen in the Premier League so far that is perfectly understandable, but he was very up and down at the Players Championship and European Tour qualifiers this week and that is the second week in a row he has had to play three days of darts and then come to the Premier League. He lost in the quarter final last week and while I don’t think he’ll lose here, I wouldn’t be surprised if he isn’t at his very best in this match. Wright will certainly be encouraged by having a potentially jaded opponent in front of him and he will know that he himself is starting to play much better too. He had a good run to the semi-finals of the PC4 event on Tuesday where among his victims were Dave Chisnall while en route to a quarter final showing at PC3 on Monday he averaged over 95 in all of his matches, which is a marked improvement on what he has been delivering. Given that Littler rarely takes more than 15 darts to win the legs he wins, Wright isn’t going to get the chance to miss many doubles here so I’m looking at the Snakebite average for a bet in this match. The line is 93.5 and there is enough in the recent Wright performances, and the fact his opponent is very good, which makes me think he’ll cover that. There is definite improvement in the Wright game so win, lose or draw I expect a 93.5 average against a Littler whose opponents generally get inflated averages against him because there is no time for multiple missed doubles.
Gerwyn Price vs Michael van Gerwen
On paper at least, we most definitely save the best for last in terms of the quarter finals in Newcastle as the man chasing a hat trick of weekly wins, Michael van Gerwen, goes up against a Gerwyn Price who reached the final in week one.
Price has made the headlines for the wrong reasons over the last couple of weeks with him pulling out of a Players Championship event and being labelled a big baby, even though he had a point in what he was saying, but in the Premier League he has made a final and took care of Luke Littler last week before having no answer to the world champion in the semi-final. Van Gerwen is ticking along nicely in the Premier League and a 6-0 bashing in a PC event in the week will just have sharpened him up to make him remember that he isn’t invincible. This should be a cracking match and I fully expect it to continue the trend of deciding leg finishes but it is one I would rather watch than get too involved in as it could easily come down to who has the throw in that deciding leg.
Night 4 Betting
It is 3/1 the field in the night four betting market and that basically highlights the competitiveness both of the eight players, the draw this week and the fact that so many matches have gone to a deciding leg so far in the tournament. I do think with Luke Littler, Michael van Gerwen and Gerwyn Price, three of the top five in the table, all in the bottom half this week, the better value might well come in the top half of the bracket.
That includes Michael Smith, Nathan Aspinall, Rob Cross and the world champion Luke Humphries and it is the world number one that I like this week. He has played some brilliant stuff in this tournament, especially last week, and looks like he has settled down into his new tag as being the world champion. He looks like he has accustomed himself to the huge arenas this event is being played in and I fancy him to come out on top. He is scoring much the best of the four on show in that top half and has five successive ton plus averages in Premier League matches. Smith has only hit one 100+ average in six Premier League outings this season and Cross and Aspinall haven’t hit those heights. With extra rest ahead of the final if he gets there, Humphries looks the bet to me.
Tips
Back M.Smith – Under 96.5 3 dart average vs N.Aspinall for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
Back P.Wright – Over 93.5 3 dart average vs L.Littler for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back L.Humphries to win Night 4 for a 2/10 stake at 4.00 with William Hill
Back him here:
