The Easter weekend fixture list in the Super League XXIX campaign gets up and running on Thursday night and as ever it is ‘Rivals Weekend’ so we get lots of competitive action with the Castleford Tigers and the Leeds Rhinos opening the show at The Jungle.
Castleford have made a disastrous start to their campaign and will want to turn things around in the derby while Leeds have come out of the traps a little better, but probably not to the levels they would have wanted given their investment ahead of the season.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Action channel with the short build-up beginning at 7.55pm ahead of the kick off which comes along at 8pm.
Castleford Tigers
It is played five and lost five for the Castleford Tigers this season so if they were hoping that a change of coach would bring about an improved return in terms of results then they haven’t had the immediate impact they were looking for. Castleford were fortunate to stay in the Super League last season with them getting a couple of wins late on to remain in the top flight and it looks like this campaign is going the same way.
The big problem for the Tigers is they are not scoring points. They have only scored more than 14 points in one of their five Super League games and they are not going to get anywhere unless they can start putting points on the board. Castleford did have a morale boosting win over Batley in the cup at the weekend but they are in desperate need of an improvement in the Super League. Castleford have won their last two home games against Leeds though.
Leeds Rhinos
The Leeds Rhinos started this season very strongly with three wins from their opening four matches but they have suffered back-to-back defeats to St Helens in the Super League and the Challenge Cup and will be looking for a bounce back here. Leeds invested heavily in their squad in the close season and generally when that investment takes place a real improvement is needed and if you judge them on those first four matches there are signs that it is there.
I do worry about Leeds away from Headingley. They seem to put in far too many of their weaker performances on their travels and they won’t be able to take Castleford lightly here for all that the Tigers are struggling. Leeds are yet to really nail it in offensive areas themselves. They haven’t scored more than 22 points in a match yet and if they are going to challenge for the title at the end of the campaign they are going to need to find some points. In their defence, the conditions so far this season haven’t been conducive to free flowing rugby.
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Team News
Castleford Tigers will be without a couple of key players in Rowan Milnes and Luke Hooley with the latter picking up an injury in the cup win at Batley. Josh Hodson made his competitive debut in that game and Daniel Hindmarsh-Takyi could make his here.
Rohan Smith has named an unchanged squad for this derby clash. Mickael Goudemand and James Donaldson were in the 21 for the cup defeat last week but didn’t make the final 17. Paul Momirovski has been passed fit despite an ankle injury against St Helens.
Betting
I expect Leeds Rhinos to win this match but I have to say that I have expected them to win their last two visits to The Jungle and that didn’t happen. I can’t trust Castleford Tigers based on what I have seen this term but I do expect them to play above themselves because they generally always do in this fixture. That said, they are starting from a pretty low base so that doesn’t guarantee success. I’m happy to leave the match betting alone.
A quick look at the weather forecast though tells us that there is going to be rain around the stadium around kick off time and a moderate breeze too so that could make this a bit of a tough battle up the middle rather than a flashy game where the backs can thrive. These two sides don’t score many points anyway and conditions might well dictate that the points we do get on Thursday night are at a premium. Castleford are only averaging 11.2 points per game in the Super League this season and it is just 16.4 for Leeds. Put the two together and round it up and you get 28 points so the 38.5 line looks high, especially in light of the tough forecast.
Tips
Back Under 38.5 points for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
