We move from Belgium to Germany on the DP World Tour this week as the Porsche European Open is the latest tournament on the European Swing as we meander towards the next major event on the golfing calendar in a couple of weeks.
Tom McKibbin will be the man looking to make a successful defence of the title that he won here last year but there is a fairly good field for this time of year that is opposing him so he will need to be at his best to keep hold of it.
Recent Winners
2023 – Tom McKibbin
2022 – Kalle Samooja
2021 – Marcus Armitage
2019 – Paul Casey
2018 – Richard McEvoy
2017 – Jordan Smith
2016 – Alex Levy
2015 – Thongchai Jaidee
2009 – Christian Cevaer
2008 – Ross Fisher
The Course
We are back at the Green Eagle Golf Resort in Hamburg which will stage this tournament for the sixth time. This is a bit of a beast of a course. It can stretch to 7.800 yards and beyond but the official yardage for the week is going to be around the 7,450 range. The big change is It is now a par 73 with as many as six par 5s, including two over 600 yards, and five par 3s so the general consensus is that we want to be on the longer hitters here. Water is in play on all but one of the holes.
That isn’t to say that there isn’t a premium for hitting the fairways though. The large undulating greens are easy to find here but the longer hitters will be firing shorter irons into them which means that they can go for the flags a little more which could be the difference. Statistics would show us that there is a real premium on finding the fairways and then those who hit the most greens tend to be the ones battling it out for the title so invest in decent long games.
The Field
We have three members of the top 100 in the world rankings teeing it up this week with the Japanese player Keita Nakajima the highest ranked of them. Rasmus Hojgaard and Jordan Smith are the other two players in that higher echelons in the standings. Those three, combined with the defending champion Tom McKibbin, bring a fairly decent profile to proceedings given the big events that are on the horizon in America.
This is also a big week for those who are high up in the Race to Dubai standings and Jesper Svensson and Nacho Elvira will be looking to bolster their top 10 ranking this week. Elvira arrives here off the back of the win in Belgium last week. Zander Lombard, Thriston Lawrence, Adrian Otaegui, Darius van Driel and Dylan Frittelli are all inside the top 20 and will be looking to take advantage of the leading lights not being around.
Market Leaders
We have a wide open betting heat this week and as such we have joint favourites at 22/1. They are Rasmus Hojgaard and the defending champion Tom McKibbin. Regular readers will know I’m not a fan of the defending champion because too much of their time is taken up with other things in the lead up to the opening day and add to the fact he defends a title for the first time here he definitely isn’t for me. Hojgaard isn’t either as his form looks to have completely deserted him and his record here does not paint a great picture.
Jordan Smith was the first winner of the tournament at this venue and he is 25/1 to win it for a second time. He would certainly fit the decent long game mould and the fact that some really average putters have won here might be of benefit to him because that is the weakest part of his game. He is the third highest ranked player in the field this week and that will ensure he is of interest to some but his recent form is enough of a concern for me.
Richard Mansell and Bernd Wiesberger come next in the market at 28/1. Wiesberger at his best could lead these a merry dance around here but there are still few signs of him coming back to the form which has seen him win many titles at this level. Mansell returned from a month off with a solid effort in Belgium last week and he has been third here in the past so he probably appeals more of the two although I’m not rushing to back either.
The only other player shorter than 35/1 this week is Niklas Norgaard, the player who arrives here having been one of the closest challengers to Nacho Elvira at the Soudal Open last week. The Dane has a top 10 finish around here in the past and his form book over the course of the year isn’t too bad. He is one of the longer hitters on the European Tour which is no bad thing around here and the 33/1 on him could well appeal.
Main Bets
Niklas Norgaard Moller is my first main bet this week. He did little wrong in defeat last week but the one thing we were able to take from that effort is how well he is hitting the ball at the minute and you have to strike the ball well around here to have any chance. This is a tough golf course so if you are slightly off with the strike it is going to be a long week. The added bonus for the Dane is he is long off the tee so he can reduce these par 5s to something a little more manageable. He has a top 10 around here so we know he can handle the place and he looks a solid each way bet to me.
The other man I want to back as a main bet is Zander Lombard. The South African is hit or miss but that is generally the case for the longer hitters. He is very strong in terms of strokes gained from tee to green and you have to eat this course up with the long game so that bodes well for the man who fifth here in 2017 and who has performed well enough on a few occasions this season without quite getting the job done. He is another whose length can make the par 5s more scorable and that could well be the difference so I’ll see how well he goes.
Outsiders
I’ll take a couple of outsiders this week as well. The first of those is the Austrian player Matthias Schwab who is having an okay season with nothing special about it but who has an excellent record around here with a seventh placed finish and a second placed finish. There aren’t many around who excel on this course but his form here stands up to most so if he can revive good memories of the place he wouldn’t be without a chance. He had a top 10 in China at the beginning of the month and while he had a week to forget in Belgium last week, if he has put that behind him his could easily outrun his price and more here.
Ross Fisher is another player who has a decent record in this tournament, albeit when it was played on a different course, but he should still get good memories of playing in this part of the world and while his record this season is nothing to inspire a massive amount of confidence, a final round of level par in Belgium last week ended a run of seven straight rounds of golf under par so he has to be hitting the ball well to put those numbers together, especially with three of those being in what became tricky conditions in China at the beginning of the month. This is clearly a tournament he enjoys playing in and if he can put a couple of strong rounds in and hang tough in the others he might give himself a look come Sunday at a big price.
Tips
Back N.Norgaard Moller to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back Z.Lombard to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Fisher to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Schwab to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
