The French Open draws to a close in Paris on Sunday when the men’s final takes place on the Philippe Chatrier Court at Roland Garros when Alexander Zverev takes on Carlos Alcaraz for the second Grand Slam title of the year.
Whoever wins this final will be winning the trophy for the first time. An Alcaraz win would give him a third Grand Slam crown while Zverev would break his duck were he to come out on top. We’re all set up for a wonderful finale.
Alexander Zverev
Around the middle of this tournament, Alexander Zverev diced with the trap door on a couple of occasions but having got through there he has pulled himself together in the last two rounds and breezed into this final in the end, dropping just one set in the quarter final and semi-final. That dispels the concerns that he could be tired going into the title match, although to be honest, even if he was the adrenalin of the occasion would get him through.
This is the second time Zverev has reached a Grand Slam final. If you are a subscriber to the theory that you have to lose a final to learn how to win them then the German has served his apprenticeship so to speak. Having won in Rome, Zverev is on a 12 match winning run and certainly looks to be getting better the longer this tournament has gone on. Zverev has served very well and if that continues in this final it would give him a live chance.
Carlos Alcaraz
Going into this tournament there were fears over an injury to Carlos Alcaraz but the way he has come through the draw so far I think it is fair to say that he has alleviated those concerns. Alcaraz had only dropped one set en route to the semi-final where he was made to work hard for the first time in the event when he had to come from 2-1 down in sets to Jannik Sinner in the last four. Now that he has done that he looks equipped to go all the way from here.
Alcaraz has already won the US Open and Wimbledon and he will add a third leg of his own personal Grand Slam if he can come out on top here. He is seen as the best clay court player in the game right now, largely because of his movement but also because of the way he can turn defence into attack in one shot. He is also smart enough to work things out when they are going wrong, as he showed in the semi-final when he was getting nowhere before working his way out of trouble.
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Head-to-head
These two have met on nine previous occasions and it is Alexander Zverev who holds a narrow 5-4 lead but it is Carlos Alcaraz who has a 2-1 advantage on clay which probably isn’t a surprise. This will be the second time they have met in a final with Alcaraz winning the previous one in Madrid in 2022 for the loss of four games. This will be their fourth meeting at a Grand Slam and it is Zverev who leads 2-1 in the previous three, one of which was here in the quarter final in 2022 when he won in four sets. Alcaraz won their most recent meeting in Indian Wells but Zverev took care of the Spaniard in the first Grand Slam of 2024 when he won in four sets at the Australian Open.
Betting
I think we’re in for a good final here. This isn’t a final that I see ending in straight sets like five of the last seven have. I think this is going to be competitive throughout. Alexander Zverev will look to dominate on the serve while Carlos Alcaraz will generally win more of the rallies with his all-court game probably slightly better than the German and his movement certainly is and in the end I think it is that movement and ability to turn points around with one shot that will win the day for Alcaraz.
At 4/11 we’re not going to get rich backing Alcaraz to win this match so instead I’ll add some juice to the bet and take the 3/4 on the Spaniard to cover a 1.5 set handicap. When Alcaraz has beaten Zverev he has won in straight sets on all four occasions and I wouldn’t be completely surprised if that happens again here if Alcaraz can get Zverev on the move early but by taking the 1.5 set handicap it gives us 3-1 to the Wimbledon champion on our side and that feels like enough insurance to me.
Tips
Back C.Alcaraz (-1.5 sets) to beat A.Zverev for a 3/10 stake at 1.75 with Unibet
