The two sides who won their opening match in Group F of Euro 2024 meet in the second game of the three on Saturday when an entertaining Turkey side go up against the team many think will win the tournament in Portugal in Dortmund.
The equation for these two teams is pretty simple. Regardless of what happens in the earlier game, whoever wins this match will be through to the knockout stages and will be in position to top the group and open up an easier path through to the latter part of the event.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on ITV1 in the UK with the build-up to the game getting going at 4.15pm ahead of the 5pm kick off in Dortmund.
Turkey
We knew going into the competition that Turkey had an energetic, young and vibrant squad but what we didn’t know was whether they would be able to utilise the fearless approach that served them so well in qualifying and in the matches they have played since then now that we are at the tournament. We got the answer to that immediately in their opening game as they got on the front foot and went at Georgia and while they suffered a setback, they kept going and ran out deserved winners.
The highlight of that opening win was the two incredible strikes that delivered the first two goals but even when they were making changes to supposedly manage the game in the latter stages they kept on attacking and got a third deep into injury time. As a neutral watching them it is hard not to enjoy it but if you are a fan or in their camp you would like them to tighten up a fair bit at the back but this is a young squad that want to attack and that should be welcomed in this modern age of cancelling the opposition out.
Portugal
Whether it was the weight of enhanced expectation or just a little bit of rustiness in the opening game, Portugal certainly didn’t look like the tournament winners many portray them to be. It wouldn’t be the worst thing if they build their way into the competition and improve as they go along but the key thing from that first game was that they won it, and while they left it very late they did get the win and now they have the platform to kick on from.
The surprising thing about Portugal in the first game was that their attack was a little clunky, although that wasn’t the case whenever Rafael Leao had the ball. He looked in the mood for a big tournament. Cristiano Ronaldo missed some good chances which will have annoyed him and he might have a point to prove here, particularly with the strength of riches that Roberto Martinez has in attacking areas. Defensively, Portugal were ok but there is room to improve there too.
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Team News
Turkey looked so good in the opening game that you could understand if Vincenzo Montella wants to name an unchanged side for this match but at the same time the defensive solidity of Okay Yokuslu in the centre of the park could be beneficial here.
Roberto Martinez has so many options that he could change things if he wants to. Diogo Jota thought he had scored the winner of the bench against the Czechs and he will be pushing for a start while Pedro Neto will hope his assist for the winner gets him a bigger role.
Betting
I am expecting to see plenty of goals in this match as well as in the opening game of the day but unlike in that first one the bookmakers are a little more dialled in for this one. The problem I have with backing goals is that the draw suits both teams here and this could easily be one of those games like we’ve seen a lot of in this second set of matches. I don’t think that will be the case because it doesn’t strike me as the Turkey way but second guessing teams isn’t the best theory.
The bet I like instead is the even money for Portugal to have more than 14.5 shots. This looks a great bet to me because even in a laboured performance they have enough quality to get at this Turkey defence. Portugal had 19 shots against the Czechs in their opening game and there is no way Turkey will defend as deep as the Czechs did nor with the numbers that the Czechs did. Georgia had 14 shots at this Turkey goal in the first game and lacked a bit of quality around the final third to put an end product on a number of other attacks. Portugal don’t have that issue and unlike Georgia when Portugal make changes they won’t lessen the attacking presence given their depth. I expect the Portuguese to go way beyond 15 shots.
Tips
Back Portugal – Over 14.5 shots for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with BetVictor
