Two groups conclude at Euro 2024 on Tuesday and the first of them is Group D where the world finalists France look to confirm top spot in proceedings when they go up against a Poland side who are already eliminated.
The equation for France in Dortmund is a pretty simple one. If they win the game they will win the group unless the Dutch win their game by the same amount. Anything but a win and France will qualify but won’t top the group.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the BBC1 channel in the UK with the coverage for this one getting underway at 4.30pm ahead of the 5pm kick off.
France
I think it is fair to say that we haven’t seen anything like the best of the French side in this tournament so far but this is a team under Dider Deschamps who manage their way through to the latter stages of a competition and then come alive. It is a tried and tested formula and you sense that is the plan they are going by this time around. It will be interesting to see if it gets them deep again. Even with that plan in place, it would be nice to see more from them here.
So far, France have yet to score for themselves in this tournament which is pretty crazy. They have only got one goal in the competition and are the joint lowest scorers after two sets of games with Serbia so they need to iron out the issues in attack if they are both to win the group and go deep in the competition. The good thing is that despite riding their luck they have conceded a goal yet so they have a decent platform at the back to build from.
Poland
I think when Poland qualified for this tournament via the play-off many thought they wouldn’t bring much to proceedings. Generally when they have qualified for events in the past they have been dour, stubborn and quite hard to watch but actually in this competition they have been a good watch. They don’t have anything to show for their efforts but they could easily have beaten the Netherlands in their opening game and gave as good as they got for long periods against the impressive Austrians.
Having lost both of their opening matches it means that they are guaranteed to finish bottom of the table but what it also means is that they have no pressure on them here so they can just have a right good go at the 2018 world champions and see if they can pull off a major upset to take into the Nations League competition in a few months. They will be looking to get in a position where they have France at it and then look to take advantage.
Special Offer
Sign up for a Boylesports account and bet £10 to get up to £20 in free bets! Perfect offer for Euro2024! Click the image below for this great offer! New accounts only. 18+ T&Cs apply. Gamble Aware.
Team News
Kylian Mbappe is said to have scored a couple of times against a local under-21 side over the weekend as he tried out his new mask in a bid to play here. Whether he starts or is on the bench will be determined by how he came out of that game.
Bartosz Salamon missed the loss to Austria with what was reported to be an ankle injury and no update has been given on his availability. It remains to be seen whether Michal Probierz gives those yet to have some game time the chance to play.
Betting
I expect to see a lot more from France in this game than we saw in their opening two matches. Austria look a real awkward side to play against so we can give them that and there was no Kylian Mbappe for the second one against the Netherlands and the vibes are that he’ll be back for this one. Whether that translates into a French win which covers the handicap remains to be seen though. I think Poland need respect here. They have nothing to lose and can give this a real good go.
The angle in for me is going to come in the shots where I like the odds against on Marcus Thuram to have more than 2.5 of them. The starting front three for the Netherlands had 12 shots against Poland in the opening game while the trio of Baumgartner, Sabitzer and Arnautovic had seven shots against them. Thuram had five shots against the Austrians in the opening game and one in the second one but it is clear that the impact of Mbappe will take defenders towards him and away from Thuram. I don’t think Poland are going to sit in for what is a dead rubber for them so there might be even more space than usual between their midfield and defence so the 6/5 on the Inter Milan forward registering three shots looks good to me.
Tips
Back M.Thuram – Over 2.5 shots for a 3/10 stake at 2.20 with Bet365
