The second part of the double header of action at the Euro 2024 tournament on Monday comes from Frankfurt where the Group F winners Portugal look to move into the quarter finals when they meet Slovenia.
Slovenia came out of their group in third place and have themselves a first shot at a knockout match in a major tournament. It comes against the 2016 winners who will be looking to move a step closer to regaining the title.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the BBC1 channel in the UK with the build-up to the match getting underway at 7.30pm ahead of the 8pm kick off.
Portugal
I think it is fair to say that it has been an acceptable tournament for Portugal so far but one which really gets going now. They had to leave it late to get the better of Czechia in an opening match which they dominated but once they had cruised past Turkey in the second game they had top spot wrapped up and were able to get a rest into all those they thought needed it for what turned out to be a meaningless loss to Georgia in their last group game.
There was a lot of the Portugal attack that looked in good order in the first two matches and even against Georgia a second string side created 23 shots at goal but the ball just wouldn’t go into the back of the net. They will look to be more clinical as a squad from here on in but you only need to look at the depth of their attacking stock to know that they will get it right in that area so if their defence holds up this should be a very good couple of weeks for the Portuguese.
Slovenia
It has been a huge achievement for Slovenia to make the knockout stages in this tournament and as such they can approach this last 16 match with a bit of freedom, not necessarily with nothing to lose, but knowing that whatever happens here they can be proud of their efforts and achievements. The one thing you would say about them is that they haven’t won a match in this tournament yet but they will only need to look at their opponents here and their success in 2016 to know that doesn’t need to count for too much.
Slovenia have probably looked better in attack than they might have been expected to in this tournament. Benjamin Sesko would have been an obvious starting point when looking at their forward line but it has actually been the support cast that has done much of the work to date. Slovenia know that they have a top class keeper and if he has a night out and they can nick something at the other end they have a chance.
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Team News
Roberto Martinez rotated his side for the defeat to Georgia but he is expected to recall everyone that he left out. Rafael Leao missed that match due to suspension but he is likely to be recalled on the left side of the attack.
Slovenia are going to be forced into a change for this match as Erik Janza picked up a second yellow card in the competition in the draw with England. There are no fresh injury concerns for the underdogs for this one though.
Betting
Slovenia have shown enough in this tournament to show that they aren’t going to be overawed in this match but I do expect them to come up short in it but they merit enough respect not to get trounced or anything like that. We have also seen Portugal take their foot off the gas a little bit when they have got the job done too so while I expect the favourites to come out on top here, I’m not convinced we’ll see an avalanche of goals or anything.
I do think Portugal will win this match but with a quarter final against France or Belgium only five days away it might be that they take the foot off the gas if they are in a position where they have got the job done and save something in the tank for that match. If this one is tight in the latter stages Portugal have plenty of attacking players to come on and win the game for them and so however this one plays out a low scoring Portugal win will do for me.
Tips
Back Portugal to win and under 3.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with Betway
