The Phil Taylor Trophy will be won on Sunday night when the final of the World Matchplay takes place inside the Winter Gardens in Blackpool when the top two in the world meet as Luke Humphries faces Michael van Gerwen to conclude an excellent week of darts.
Van Gerwen has had his hands on this trophy in the past and will be looking to get it on his mantelpiece once again while the world champion Luke Humphries will be aiming to be just the second person to win this while holding the world title. We should be in for a best of 35 leg cracker.
Luke Humphries
The world champion Luke Humphries arrived here as a fairly warm favourite to win the tournament and he has made his way into another major final and given him a shot at picking up the second biggest ranking title in the game for the first time. He wasn’t just favourite because he is the world number one but also because he dodged all the dangerous bullets in the draw and although he has had to see off some tricky challengers.
Humphries probably produced his best showing in the opening round against Ricardo Pietreczko in a game where he put a statement of intent out and although he hasn’t quite hit those heights since then, he has faced three very strong opponents in Stephen Bunting, Dimitri Van den Bergh and James Wade, none of them have really got close to him even though he hasn’t quite been at his very best. The key to the Humphries game this week has been his finishing. He is yet to drop below 39% on the doubles in this tournament.
Michael van Gerwen
I guess when the tournament began there weren’t as many people fancying Michael van Gerwen for success, largely because he was coming up against Luke Littler in the first round, a match he was a solid outsider to win. Once he navigated that test in the manner that he did though it was obvious that he was going to be a tough nut to crack and he has made it into the latter stages of the event without too much of a challenge.
Van Gerwen has actually scored better this week than he has done for quite a while over the course of an entire tournament. His scoring has been big and it has been sustained but his finishing in the last two matches in particular has been a real concern. He was fortunate that he could outscore Andrew Gilding in the quarter final and just as lucky that Michael Smith had no confidence on the doubles either. If MVG doesn’t finish better here you would think he has got no chance.
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Head-to-head
These two have met on 25 previous occasions in their career and it is Michael van Gerwen who holds a narrow 13-12 lead but of their 14 televised battles it is Luke Humphries who has an 8-6 advantage. Humphries has won two of their three previous finals including the one they have played on TV which came in the Players Championship Finals in Minehead last November. Where there is a bit of a chasm between the two is their 2024 meetings. Humphries has won seven of the eight and that doesn’t bode well for MVG, particularly when he won their first match in 2024. Since then the cumulative leg score is 48-24.
Betting
Recent history between these two men would tell us that Luke Humphries is a good thing here and the eye test this week would also support that. Humphries is yet to fall below a 100 average despite the perception that he hasn’t quite been in tip top position in his game since the opening round while van Gerwen hasn’t been above a 100 average since the first round. While averages aren’t everything, they are a good guide of the all-round shape of the game.
The big issue I have here is the number of doubles van Gerwen has missed this weekend. In the quarter final he was 16/54 on the doubles and in the semi-final it was 17/57 and he just isn’t going to get the chance to miss that many in this final and live to tell the tale. Humphries is checking out at around 45% for the tournament and given that he is scoring very strongly either van Gerwen ups his game on the doubles or he goes home empty handed. He might well up his game on them but over this distance I just think the doubling of the Dutchman will crack at some point. Although Humphries hasn’t been at his best since the opening round, the longer his matches have gone on the better he has got. He was 6-6 with Bunting, 7-7 with Van den Bergh and 6-6 with Wade and nobody has got more than 10 legs against him yet. I expect Humphries to pull away to success here.
Tips
Back L.Humphries (-2.5 legs) to beat M.van Gerwen for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with Betfair
