The closing stages of the PGA Tour season are on the horizon but before we get there the show heads to Minnesota this week for the 3M Open, one of few chances remaining for those who are yet to qualify for the playoffs to do just that.
Lee Hodges went some way to boosting his chances last year when he claimed a maiden PGA Tour title and he will be looking to make a successful defence of it against a competitive field with a few big names mixed in.
Recent Winners
2023 – Lee Hodges
2022 – Tony Finau
2021 – Cameron Champ
2020 – Michael Thompson
2019 – Matthew Wolff
The Course
We are back at TPC Twin Cities this week, the course which has been used in all five runnings of this tournament now. The course is a par 71 which stretches to 7,431 yards so it is a bit of a monster where the longer hitters can have their way as is becoming the norm on the PGA Tour these days. There are some drivable holes around here which will see their eyes light up.
The first year Wolff pounded the driver around here and holed almost everything whereas Michael Thompson picked his way around the course the year after but he holed everything. Cameron Champ and Tony Finau added their names to the roll of honour for the bombers over the last two years. Whatever else you look for around here it is imperative to take a hot putter as this is sure to be a low scoring week. Length is going to be a big thing around here so keep an eye out for the longer hitters who can get it rolling with the putter.
The Field
As you would imagine the week after the final major of the year on the other side of the world, the field this week isn’t the strongest that has ever been seen on the PGA Tour but there are some decent names mixed in among them including the 2022 champion of this tournament in Tony Finau. The defending champion Lee Hodges is in this field while Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, Akshay Bhatia and the man who led The Open going into the final round in Billy Horschel are all in the field.
Further profile is added by the Rocket Mortgage winner Cam Davis who heads up the international charge this week. Potential Presidents Cup teammates Taylor Pendrith and Adam Hadwin are both in the field this week while the Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley also has a tee time. Tom Hoge, Kurt Kirtayama, J.T. Poston and the winner of the Barracuda Championship in Nick Dunlap are all in what is a competitive field rather than a spectacular one.
Market Leaders
Tony Finau won around here a couple of years ago and he was T7 in his title defence. He missed the cut at The Open the year he won the tournament so it shouldn’t be seen as a negative that he missed it at Troon last week but where the negative does come was that he was in a decent enough position after the first round and had no answer to the tough conditions he encountered. He won’t get those conditions this week though and is probably a fair enough 11/1 favourite, albeit one that is too short for me.
Sam Burns ran hot during the third round of The Open last week but suffered a back nine to forget on Sunday and he is 18/1 to bounce back with the title here. His putter has been hot for a good while now and there isn’t anything in the long game test that is going to deny him this week so if he is over the mental disappointment of seeing a chance to win a major slip away then he very well could be dangerous here. I never like getting involved in players who lost so badly to the golf course so late the week before though.
Akshay Bhatia is another who missed the cut at The Open last week but he did win the Texas Open earlier in the year and he went to Royal Troon with a pair of top five finishes to his name so there is no disputing his form underneath the big events. He is on debut here which could be a negative and he isn’t the longest hitter in the field but he is accurate from tee to green and if the putter cooperates then the 20/1 on him could yield a payout.
Sahith Theegala is next in the market at 22/1 and you would imagine he would relish the conditions and the test in front of him here a lot more than the one he faced at The Open last week but he hasn’t made a cut in three outings around TPC Twin Cities which is a surprise. This will be the first time that he tackles it as a PGA Tour winner but globetrotting and a poor record at the venue is certainly not the recipe for a bet for me this week.
Main Bets
Cam Davis recently won the Rocket Mortgage Classic and similar credentials are needed here in that you have to hit it a country mile and hole plenty of putts. I do think length is significant this week because the greens are expected to be firm and the shorter the club you hit into them the better it will be. Davis has three top 10 finishes to his name on this course so it is a test he clearly enjoys and with the pressure released I expect a good showing. Davis wasn’t at The Open either which has to be a positive rather than a negative so the Australian ticks enough boxes to give this a right good go.
Things are getting really tight if Taylor Pendrith wants to compete in a home Presidents Cup and after potentially letting one get away last week despite a T5 finish at the Barracuda Championship, I’m happy to give him another go here where again hitting the ball a long way and holing some putts is a test which he often enjoys. He is guaranteed to make the FedExCup playoffs after a win at the Byron Nelson earlier in the season but still needs some results to guarantee qualifying for East Lake let alone the Presidents Cup. The Canadian shouldn’t be short of motivation this week so at 40/1 I think he’s worth going in on again.
Outsiders
Patrick Fishburn is another player who allowed one to get away from me last week but I’m not quite done with him yet either because I liked what I saw at the Barracuda. If it wasn’t for the fact that he just couldn’t get going again after the lightning delay on the Friday he might well have gone much closer in that tournament than the solo third that he managed in California. He is a big hitter, as we saw quite often last week, and has been putting well too. He was fourth in Greens in Regulation at the Barracuda and arrives here with seven top 25s in his last 10 starts and at a three figure price I’m sticking with my man.
The other man I’m taking this week is Chris Gotterup, another big hitter who could well tame this course off the tee box. Gotterup won the Myrtle Beach Classic back in May and while he has done nothing since then the seven events he has played have been the PGA Championship, Charles Schwab Classic, Memorial, Travelers Championship, Rocket Mortgage Classic, John Deere Classic and the Scottish Open so four of those have been elevated fields and he fluffed his lines in the Rocket Mortgage but the last two weeks he has missed the cut despite opening with a 66 so he’s been out of luck. A course for big hitting and clean putting should be right up his street so at a three figure price I’ll pay to see how he goes.
Tips
Back C.Davis to win 3M Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Coral (1/5 1-10)
Back T.Pendrith to win 3M Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back P.Fishburn to win 3M Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Gotterup to win 3M Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
