The DP World Tour season continues this week when it moves from England to Spain for the Open de Espana, one of the better events on the circuit and one which is going to have a lot of profile on it given the cast list.
Matthieu Pavon launched what has been an incredible 12 months here last year when he took down the title but if he is going to make a successful defence of it then he is going to need to fend off a pretty strong field.
Recent Winners
2023 – Matthieu Pavon
2022 – Jon Rahm
2021 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
2019 – Jon Rahm
2018 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Andrew Johnston
2015 – James Morrison
2014 – Miguel Angel Jimenez
2013 – Raphael Jacquelin
2012 – Francesco Molinari
The Course
The Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is the venue for the tournament this week. This is the fifth year in succession that we have been at this course. The track has lengthened a touch over that time. It is now a par 71 which stretches out to 7,154 yards which isn’t particularly long by modern standards, especially when the course is some 2,500m above sea level. That means we are looking for players who have good distance control.
The track has undulating greens where being on the right part of them is pivotal. The fairways are treelined but at this time of the year there is not likely to be much in the way of rough. There isn’t too much in terms of a test off the tee so it might be the second shot and in where the field gets sorted out. Look for strong iron players who are wielding a decent putter in what is likely to be a low scoring competition.
The Field
A week on from the flagship event of the season, the fact that team golf is the order of the day on the PGA Tour, we have a really strong field for what is purely a national open this week with the key name on the cast list being Jon Rahm despite the fact he is under appeal for not paying his DP World Tour fines. He is one of seven players in the top 50 in the world rankings with Tommy Fleetwood now the leader on that list. Aaron Rai, the defending champion Matthieu Pavon, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka and Tyrrell Hatton are the others.
There are another four players teeing it up this week who are in the top 100 in the world rankings. They are Victor Perez, Matt Wallace, Romain Langasque and Matteo Manassero. Rikuya Hoshino is the other player teeing it up apart from those named who is in the top 20 of the Race to Dubai standings so we have a really strong field for what should be a good week of golf with so many players campaign of coming out on top in this thing.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm has won this tournament in three of the last five seasons and he is back to look to get hold of the trophy again even though he has now joined LIV Golf. This is one of the events he has to play to be eligible for the Ryder Cup next year so he is obliged to be here but even so given his record around here he is probably a worthy 3/1 favourite. It isn’t the price that I want to get involved with but he has the capability to rip any field apart on a course that suits.
Tommy Fleetwood is now the leading ranked player in the field in terms of the world rankings and you can get him at 11/1 on the best prices along with his fellow English player Tyrrell Hatton, who like Rahm is taking advantage of the week to top up the number of tournaments he has played to keep his Ryder Cup eligibility intact. Fleetwood convinces me more on tougher tracks and while Hatton has the tools to get the job done here he isn’t really convincing me to part with my dough either.
Aaron Rai came close to landing the BMW PGA Championship last week and he is 14/1 to follow up by winning the Open de Espana. I guess he is in the same boat as Tommy Fleetwood in terms of he might be better on slightly tougher tracks with his putter not always the most cooperating but if he can warm that up he could go well. He was T12 in his only previous attempt at this tournament but that was on a different course to this one which puts me off getting involved.
Shane Lowry is the other player in the field who is less than 20/1. You can get him at 16/1 on the best prices but his putter is a massive issue here. You have to think we are looking at a winning score better than -20 and there is no sign that he is going to hole enough putts to get there. This is his first go at the tournament in 10 years and he didn’t have a top 10 in five starts prior to that so I’m certainly not rushing in to get involved here.
Main Bets
There is a little bit of altitude around here so the fact that Matt Wallace won the Omega European Masters recently might well be a good thing. He actually heads to Spain in fine form because either side of that he went well at the British Masters where he registered a top 10 finish and at the BMW PGA Championship last week where he was T12. He sits at 12 on the strokes gained putting statistic on the DP World Tour which includes being 11, 7 and 19 in that in the last three events he has played. This course isn’t too long and his distance control in the Swiss Alps was spot on and if that is the case here he shouldn’t be far away.
David Puig has some really good form on the Asian Tour this year and although his LIV Golf record hasn’t been fantastic in 2024 I’m not sure how much we can take from that with the quirky formats and things but those results in Asia clearly show that the hype around him is justified and if he is going to contend on the DP World Tour then you would imagine it will be on home soil where he will be very familiar with the conditions and things. He won in Malaysia and was second in Macao, finishing with 62 62 on the weekend to win in Malaysia and a 60 in the final round in Macao. This is a guy who can clearly go low and I would expect him to go well here.
Outsiders
I’ll take a pair of outsiders this week as well with the first of those being the man who led the field at the halfway point at Wentworth last week and although he couldn’t put on and get the job done, Matthew Baldwin did hang around to finish in a tie for fourth and if that doesn’t give him confidence then nothing will. That showing didn’t come completely out of the blue either. In the weeks prior to the BMW PGA, he finished T12 at the Czech Masters, T18 at the British Masters and T30 at the Irish Open. Baldwin only has one win on the DP World Tour but it was in South Africa with a bit of altitude so he ticks enough boxes to merit support here.
The other outsider that I like this week is Alfredo Garcia-Heredia who has a fine recent record around this golf course having finished T6 and T9 the last two years here. I have to say that probably still wouldn’t have taken my fancy if he hadn’t finished T2 at the Omega European Masters recently but having done that I think he has to be supported here because he is clearly happy playing at altitude. He was fifth in a Challenge Tour event in Spain earlier in the season too so there is obviously something he enjoys about playing at home and those records make him an obvious outsider bet this week.
Tips
Back M.Wallace to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Puig to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Baldwin to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back A.Garcia-Heredia to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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