The stars of golf come alongside the major players from business, sport and screen on the Scottish links this week as the professionals and the amateurs head to three famous courses for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
This tournament has some illustrious champions and Matthew Fitzpatrick added his name to the list a year ago when he took down the title. He is back to look to make a successful defence but a stacked field is up against him.
Recent Winners
2023 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2022 – Ryan Fox
2021 – Danny Willett
2019 – Victor Perez
2018 – Lucas Bjerregaard
2017 – Tyrrell Hatton
2016 – Tyrrell Hatton
2015 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2014 – Oliver Wilson
2013 – David Howell
The Format
Each professional teeing it up this week is paired with an amateur partner where the pair play each of the courses once over the first three days of the tournament. The top 60 professionals after the third round play the final round at St Andrews on Sunday with the leading 20 pro-am teams also playing out the last 18 holes for their own individual title.
The Courses
Kingsbarns, St Andrews and Carnoustie are the three courses this week with Kingsbarns often the easiest of the rotation and Carnoustie the toughest although they are all set up easier than they would be if they were hosting The Open to allow for the amateurs to get by in a reasonable time limit. As we have seen in the past though, the toughness of all three courses will be determined by the conditions, especially the wind.
That wind is expected to be around at times but it is likely to be a little warmer than usual for this tournament. The worst of the weather looks like it will be around on Friday and Sunday. Factor that in when making your selections this week. Green finders are often a must in this tournament while a hot putter is never a bad thing. Being able to play in the wind is paramount and an enjoyment in tough conditions might help you separate the field too.
The Field
The field for this tournament is always a stacked one and we have arguably the best field of the year for this event. Five of the top 20 players in the world rankings are here and another in Tyrrell Hatton would be in that bracket if he hadn’t defected to LIV Golf. The five top 20 players teeing it up here are Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, the BMW PGA Championship winner Billy Horschel and the Scottish Open champion Robert MacIntyre.
A further five players are in the top 50 in the world rankings with those being Matthieu Pavon, Shane Lowry, the defending champion Matthew Fitzpatrick, Thriston Lawrence and Alex Noren. Another bunch of players inside the top 100 in the world rankings are here too with the pick of them being Nicolai and Rasmus Hojgaard, Matt Wallace, Brooks Koepka, Thorbjorn Olesen and one of the form players in the season in Jesper Svensson. This is a brilliant field.
Market Leaders
We have a pair of 13/2 joint favourites this week despite the stacked nature of this field. They are Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy. Neither have won this tournament in the past despite a number of attempts while the former comes here having failed to get it done on home soil last week while the latter couldn’t get the job done on home soil two weeks previously. I’m never one for taking short prices in a three-course event with conditions so important but neither of these two interest me too much even if I did.
Tyrrell Hatton is a twice former champion of this tournament so it is probably no surprise that he is no bigger than 11/1 to win the event for a third time. I’m not sure he is quite in the sort of form he would want to be and it might well be that he is only here to make up the number of competitions he needs to play to keep his Ryder Cup ambitions alive. He hits a lot of greens though and if he fancies the job he is more than capable of winning this but I’m not convinced he is that up for it so I’ll leave this alone.
It is a bit of a surprise that Tommy Fleetwood has never got his hands on this trophy given how comfortable he is on links courses and how he has the sort of personality that should thrive in this environment. He is 12/1 to put an end to that barren run this week but that isn’t really a price that inspires me. He does come in here with form figures of being second at the Olympics, T12 at Wentworth and T3 last week although he was never really in contention in Spain. He’s too short for me.
Brooks Koepka and Shane Lowry are next in the market at 20/1. They are two more players who it is a surprise have never won this tournament. Koepka at his best could still be one of the best players in the world but I’m not sure tough conditions bring out the best in his game. Lowry is as good a links player as you’ll find and he merits respect on that alone but his putter isn’t something that I want to be carrying my money. I’ll pass both of these over too.
Main Bet
Thriston Lawrence has been second in two of his last four starts and he finished fourth in The Open in the event prior to that and it has to be said that it isn’t a surprise because he is statistically the best putter on the DP World Tour this season in terms of leading the way in the strokes gained putting statistic. In all this season the South African has finished second five times so he arrives in Scotland at number two on the Race to Dubai standings and could make a huge move here.
It has to be said that he hasn’t pulled up any trees in this tournament in the past but there is nothing to suggest that he can’t play links golf. He showed at The Open that he can and the wind really shouldn’t be a problem for him. He also showed at The Open that he can shape shots depending on what is needed and arriving here in the form he does I think he might well prevail to be the one that they all have to beat. At 33/1 he’s my sole main bet here.
Outsiders
With just one main bet I’m going to load up with the outsiders a little more with the first one being a player who has made the top 10 here in his last two starts in Antoine Rozner. That isn’t necessarily a surprise because his iron play is right up there with anything on the DP World Tour so if his putter works, which it clearly seems to do with the way the courses are set up for this event. Rozner was in the top 10 at Wentworth a couple of weeks ago so he arrives here with a lot of confidence and is an obvious each way bet.
Another obvious outsider punt is Daniel Brown, the man who for a lot of The Open was the unlikely leader of the tournament. He eventually ended in a tie for tenth but he showed in that horrendous third round that he can hang tough and that bodes well. If you thought that showing was a fluke it wasn’t because he finished fourth at the Irish Open recently which was on a links course and the week prior to The Open, Brown was inside the top 20 through three rounds of the Scottish Open. He was also third in Mauritius so exposed seaside tracks seem to bring the best out of him. I expect a strong showing here.
If you have followed this site and my previews of this tournament for a while you will know that Joakim Lagergren is a staple diet on the team and that isn’t changing this year. He has four top five finishes and a T12 in just seven starts in this event so this particular scene and the way this tournament is set up is clearly to his liking. That isn’t a surprise. He hits a lot of greens and seems to come alive with the putter on links tracks and we know from Sweden he will relish any windy conditions this week. Lagergren has won twice on the Challenge Tour in the last month and so he is remaining on my team this week.
Matthew Southgate is well down the rankings on the DP World Tour this season so this tournament might have come at a very good time for him as he looks to get back up the rankings and make sure of his playing privileges for a while. He has been second in this tournament twice in the past, including a year ago and has a whole bank of links form to back up those two second placed finishes. You have to say his form has been pretty poor this year but he seems to be a different animal when you get him on a links track, or three of them as is the case this week. At a monster price I’ll pay to see how well he goes here.
Tips
Back T.Lawrence to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Rozner to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Lagergren to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back D.Brown to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Southgate to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 276.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-8)
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