The frantic Sky Bet Championship schedule continues on Friday night when another round of matches begin at Vicarage Road when Watford look to move into the top six when they play host to Oxford United.
Watford begin the night a place outside the top six and will end it in that zone should they avoid defeat here while Oxford are going along fine in their first campaign back in the second tier for a while and have a chance to show what they can do here.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football channels with the build-up to it beginning at 7.30pm ahead of the 8pm kick off in Hertfordshire.
Watford
I guess when you consider the expectations of the outside world heading into the season, this has to be described as a positive start to the season for the Hornets overall but they have had a real mixture of the sublime and the ridiculous about their play at different times this term. Nevertheless, they begin the round which completes the opening third of the season just one spot outside the play-offs which is a lot higher than they were projected to be at any stage of the campaign.
They are largely in the position that they are because of their home form. They are 5-1-0 at Vicarage Road with just four goals against them in those six matches so they will be delighted that they are on home soil here. Issues arise when they go on their travels but they’ll have a fortnight after this match to work out where they have been going wrong there and look to come to the party away from home. They did at least show last weekend that when it clicks away from home they can put sides to the sword.
Oxford United
It was hard to know what to expect of Oxford United heading into the season. It is always difficult to tell that when a team comes up via the play-offs at the best of times let alone when they lost their key man from last season like Oxford did. You would have to say that a 4-5-5 record after 14 matches is perfectly acceptable as surely their only ambition in their first term back at this level in a while is to consolidate and ensure they remain a Championship club. They are well on the way to doing that.
One issue they are going to need to address over the remainder of the season if they are to stay up is their poor away record. They are yet to win on their travels upon their return to the second tier and if they want to remain comfortably away from danger then they are going to need to improve there. The good thing is they picked up a win in midweek to end a run of eight without a win home or away and that gives them a bit of a free go at this one.
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Team News
Watford boss Tom Cleverley has explained that he will be without a few players for this match. Moussa Sissoko and Francisco Sierralta are both suspended while Angelo Ogbonna and Tom Dele-Bashiru are among a group on the injury list.
Ben Nelson has added himself to the injury list having sustained an issue in the midweek win over Hull City while Des Buckingham will also be without the likes of Cameron Brannigan, Matt Phillips and Przemyslaw Placheta along with Siriki Dembele and Louie Sibley who are all out injured.
Betting
When you consider that Watford are unbeaten at home and Oxford United haven’t won away you would think that this is something of a banker home win but this is the Sky Bet Championship and this division never works like that. I still wouldn’t want to approach the game thinking the opposite of that, largely because Oxford have a raft of injuries and the last thing you need in these three game weeks is a shortage of options but I’m not sure I can trust a Watford side who despite being seventh in the table have conceded 22 goals and are second worst for xGA in the Championship this term.
The bet I am happy to go with that follows all of the trends is for Watford to score over 1.5 goals. They have covered that line in every home game bar the one against Blackburn Rovers where they ran up an xG of 2.03. That came after a humiliating derby loss and a defeat at Leeds so the Hornets probably just wanted to win the game anyway. Oxford have conceded two or more in every away match this season apart from at bottom club Portsmouth and with their squad being strained in a three game week this feels like a tough ask. Just to keep the 2-0 Watford on side I’ll play them to cover a 1.5 goal line rather than the match over 2.5 which might need Oxford to score to cover.
Tips
Back Watford – Over 1.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with William Hill
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