The DP World Tour remains in Australia for the second tournament of the new season this week as the Australian Open takes place across two very appealing courses in Melbourne as we get closer to rounding out 2024.
Joaquin Niemann won this tournament a year ago and he is in the field looking to make a successful defence of his crown. Given the time of year, it has to be said that a fairly decent field will be out to stop him.
Recent Winners
2023 – Joaquin Niemann
2022 – Adrian Meronk
The Courses
We have two courses in play this week – Kingston Heath Golf Club and Victoria Golf Club. The field take on the two courses over 18 holes in the first two days before the final 36 holes are played out at Kingston Heath, which is an incredible layout for a tournament of this kind. Kingston Heath is a par 72 which stretches 7,259 but at this time of year doesn’t really play to that yardage while Victoria Golf Club is also a par 72 with some very short holes.
The general success story in terms of profile around here is a very good short game. There isn’t a huge amount of trouble off the tee and the ball flies here on the firm and fast surfaces so a decent scrambler who holes putts is usually the pathway to success as is the case on most links tracks. This isn’t a links event by design but the way the courses play turn it into one where those who go well on links go well here.
The Field
The field isn’t quite as strong as the one which was assembled last week but we do have six members of the top 100 in the world rankings teeing it up here with Min Woo Lee at 49 the highest of them. Cam Davis, Victor Perez and Jordan Smith are three more members of that club while Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen has made his way into that bracket. The sextet are completed by the home player Cameron Smith, although the defending champion Joaquin Niemann would surely be in that gang were it not for him playing on the LIV Tour.
A lot of the field this week played in the Australian PGA Championship last week including the entire top five from that event. Elvis Smylie won that tournament and he’ll be looking to follow that up with another win here while David Micheluzzi will be looking to go marginally better here. Others who had a good week in Brisbane who could go well here include Lukas Nemecz, Matthew Southgate, Freddy Schott and Jannik de Bruyn.
Market Leaders
Joaquin Niemann isn’t just the defending champion this week, he is also the 11/2 favourite to win the tournament. He has a pretty decent links record which is no bad thing around here but he will be defending on a different pair of tracks to the ones he won on which I never think is ideal. He didn’t play here in 2022 so he might need a round or two to get up to speed with things which is enough to put me off at what is a fairly skinny price in this field.
Cameron Smith had every chance of winning on home soil last week but he couldn’t really get the job done when push came to shove in that final round and he is 15/2 to go better this week. He has won The Open so we know that he can handle links conditions and that is a huge advantage but there is no doubt that I’m a little put off by the way he finished on a track he has a brilliant record at last week. He is another one on the short side for me.
Min Woo Lee was the favourite to win the tournament last week but never really looked like he was going to justify that position in the betting. He has drifted a touch this week and can be taken at 17/2 on the best prices. I was a little surprised by his showing last week but when his putter doesn’t cooperate he is going to be in trouble and you wouldn’t call him a brilliant putter at the best of times. He looks the weakest of all the market leaders to me.
Marc Leishman is another who will be wanting a good week here, not just because world ranking points are up for grabs and he doesn’t get as many chances of those as he would want now that he is on the LIV Golf tour, but also because this is his home open and all players dream of winning that. Leishman has the skillset to go very well around here and might well be popular at 12/1 but I just wonder if since leaving for LIV his best golf is behind him now.
Main Bets
I don’t think it is going to be too long before David Micheluzzi really announces himself on the DP World Tour and it could very well be this week. He was fifth last week where he probably would have expected to go better after setting up a great chance to win but having experienced the heat of the final round I would imagine he’ll be better suited to the task should he get in that position again. He ranked 18 for scrambling last week and 13 for putting and if that short game is with him here then he should be right in the mix.
Victor Perez didn’t really feature over the last two rounds last week but he carded a five under 66 in the opening round before all the rain came and changed the dynamic of the event. We know from his win at the Dunhill Links in the past that he can handle firm and fast links like conditions and it might be that coming here without the mental rigours of trying to win a tournament can separate him from the rest of the market leaders. Perez will get a lot of assistance from the ground with his tee shots this week and if his short game stands up to usual levels he could be a big runner here.
Outsiders
When Matthew Southgate was making his way into contention last week I was praying that he would slow down a touch because I had him on my radar for this tournament. He has an excellent links record and that alone would mean I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes well this week. Southgate didn’t really go anywhere on the Sunday in Brisbane and that works well for us as it means we are getting a three figure price on him here. Southgate was sixth in scrambling last week and fifth in strokes gained putting and if he can keep it handy off the tee he shouldn’t be far away.
The most eye catching short game stats last week belonged to Jack Senior and it might be worth chancing the Englishman at something of a monster price because he is another who is comfortable on links tracks and with that short game form could easily outrun his price in a big way. Senior was third for scrambling last week and the same for strokes gained putting so if the firm nature of the fairways assists his long game then Senior isn’t an alsoran. These two course events which is set up for the men and the women can often throw up an outsider winner so I’ll pay to see if that is Senior.
Tips
Back D.Micheluzzi to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back V.Perez to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back M.Southgate to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
Back J.Senior to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
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