It is Thanksgiving Day in America on Thursday which means that in amongst the pageantry and the turkey is a triple header of action in the NFL 2024 season which gets underway at Ford Field where the Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears.
These two NFC North rivals head into this one in completely opposite directions and all eyes will be on the pair to see if the form holds up or whether the holiday can bring about a chance in fortunes and an upset occur.
Detroit Lions
After going so well last season, the Detroit Lions are now the favourites to win the Super Bowl at the present time. Some of that is down to the fact that the NFC looks infinitely weaker than the AFC currently but it is largely down to how brilliant they have been this term. They have the highest scoring offense in the NFL and the second best defence in terms of the statistics and it doesn’t matter what the circumstances and situations are, when you have those weapons on your side you are going to be dangerous.
The Lions have a powerful offense, led by Jared Goff but heavily assisted by the weapons that are around him but the impressive thing about their play so far is that their defence has stood up despite the absence of Aidan Hutchinson, their best pass rusher. The result of that is that they go into this match 10-1 for the year and have done a real job on a few opponents in this run but despite their strong record they still have work to do to win the division and will be looking for a win here to assist them.
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Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears had higher hopes going into this season than in previous ones because they acquired the number one draft pick and selected a franchise quarterback in Caleb Williams. At one stage this season the Bears were 4-2 and looking like they were getting into a position where they could push for a wildcard spot in the NFC but five defeats on the spin has left those hopes hanging by a thread and they will probably need to win out from here for that to be in play.
Among these five losses they have found some horrible ways to lose. They lost to a hail mary that their own defender tipped into the hands of the receiver with the last play against Washington, lost to a blocked field goal against Green Bay two weeks ago and then Minnesota took them down in overtime last week. You just wonder what damage that has done to them mentally ahead of a match where they are double digit dogs away to a rampant outfit.
Betting
I fully expect the Detroit Lions to win this match and win it well but I’ve seen enough Thanksgiving Day matches to know that if any day is going to follow a different script it is this one so if Detroit are good enough to cover a double digit cap then good luck to them but I will go in search of a different way of backing what should be a comfortable afternoon at the office for the home side. That comes in the rushing yards of Jahmyr Gibbs.
He has a line of 72.5 rushing yards here, which admittedly he doesn’t always cover but he has covered it in six of the 11 matches he has played this season and has posted 71 and 69 yards in other games. The Bears’ run defence has given up more than 150 yards per game on the ground in this five-match losing burst and after overtime on Sunday and an earlier start here you would have to think this defence has the potential to get gassed in the second period. Gibbs is averaging a nudge under six yards per carry this season so if he gets 13-14 touches and runs to his average he’ll cover this line but there is the potential for a monster run so I like the over here.
Tips
Back J.Gibbs – Over 72.5 rushing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
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