The DP World Tour has left Australia and has headed for South Africa this week as the Nedbank Golf Challenge takes place with an incredible field lining up on one of the more picturesque tracks on the circuit for what should be a very good week of golf.
The PGA Tour star Max Homa was the winner of this tournament a year ago and he has taken up his invitation to attempt to make a successful defence of the title but a seriously good field has been assembled looking to take it from him.
Recent Winners
2023 – Max Homa
2022 – Tommy Fleetwood
2019 – Tommy Fleetwood
2018 – Lee Westwood
2017 – Branden Grace
2016 – Alex Noren
2015 – Marc Leishman
2014 – Danny Willett
2013 – Thomas Bjorn
2012 – Martin Kaymer
The Course
The famous Gary Player Country Club hosts the tournament as ever this week. The Sun City track is a bit of a brute given that it is a par 72 which measures no less than 7,819 yards. That sounds pretty serious but we are at altitude this week so although the course is long it never plays to that sort of yardage, especially with conditions being firm and fast as always.
The course plays pretty tight and despite its long yardage it is accuracy which is the more important, especially greens in regulation. The greens here have plenty of slopes and false fronts so pinpoint iron play rarely goes unrewarded. Clearly it is easier to hit precise iron shots from the fairway so there is a real emphasis on the tee to green game. A warm putter is never a bad thing around here either.
The Field
We might be in December but we have an excellent field in South Africa for this tournament. There are no fewer than 16 players in the top 100 in the world rankings who have a tee time for this tournament including three from the top 50. They are the defending champion Max Homa, PGA Tour star Corey Conners and the home player Thriston Lawrence. Among the rest of the players in the top 100 in the world are another home star in Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
The others include another PGA Tour star in Mackenzie Hughes, rising DP World Tour ace Nicolai Hojgaard, Thomas Detry, Will Zalatoris, Thorbjorn Olesen, Erik van Rooyen, Romain Langasque, Jordan Smith, Matteo Manassero, Ryo Hisatsune, Niklas Norgaard and the winner in Abu Dhabi last month in Paul Waring. Tom McKibbin, Laurie Canter, Ewen Ferguson, Guido Migliozzi and Adrian Otaegui are some of the many other DP World Tour event winners who are in the field.
Market Leaders
Corey Conners makes his debut in the tournament this week and he will tee it up as an 11/1 favourite to take the crown at the first attempt. With this course being one for the ball strikers it probably isn’t a surprise that he is the favourite to win but I do think this is a place where generally a bit of experience is needed. There is no doubt that in terms of hitting the golf ball, Conners is above the level of most of these but on debut he feels a touch skinny to me.
There are a trio of players in the field who are 16/1 in the betting market. They are the defending champion Max Homa and the two home players who will be motivated to win in front of a local crowd in Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Thriston Lawrence. Homa won this tournament on debut a year ago but I’m not a fan of backing defending champions. Bezuidenhout was fifth here in 2022 which is no surprise while Lawrence has gone T13-T24 the last two years. None of the three really inspire me.
Three other players are shorter in the betting market than 20/1 and they are all 18/1 on the best prices. They are the Danish pair of Thorbjorn Olesen and Nicolai Hojgaard and the PGA Tour star Will Zalatoris. Olesen was third here last year and certainly merits respect while Hojgaard went one better than that and is certainly good enough to go one better again. I like the profile of Zalatoris around here but him being a debutant doesn’t sit great with me at this price.
Main Bets
I really like the look of Niklas Norgaard and I’m a little surprised that he isn’t as short in the betting as his Danish counterparts. He might not have the CV of an Olesen or a Hojgaard but I do think he has the talent of them and especially on a course like this where his length and tee to green game can be a big factor. He is on debut in this tournament but he has been for a while and has got results. It isn’t like he is a skinny price so I’m happy to overlook that he is on debut here. He won the British Masters so he has winning confidence and finished last season fairly well. He feels like he has every chance here.
Laurie Canter was one of the better players from tee to green on the DP World Tour last season and that is the statistic that is the most important around here so it stands to reason that he’ll have a decent tournament. Canter was also a winner on the tour last year so he arrives here with an elevated status and if he can handle these greens upon arrival then there is plenty of reason to think that he can go well here. In an ideal world he would have had a prior spin around here but he is twice the price of the other debutants I fancy so I’m happier to get involved here.
Outsiders
Dan Bradbury won the Open de France towards the end of last season and as a winner in South Africa earlier in his career he has to be a big price here. He was fifth in this tournament a year ago too so he could really be under the radar going into this tournament. He has a wonderful record in the Joburg Open which is at altitude like this event and that win at Le Golf National confirms that his long game is in decent order and with conditions to suit him there is no reason why the Englishman can’t make the frame again here at the very least.
Frederic Lacroix was good for me last season and I’ll pay and see if his excellent tee to green game can propel him into the mix in this company as well. He won the Danish Championship where his long game was in good order and although he didn’t do a great deal after that, it is often the case that a player has a downturn after winning for the first time. If he wanted something to get him going again then it should be a tournament in this company. He has a profile which should suit this course so I’ll pay to see how he goes here.
Tips
Back N.Norgaard to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
Back L.Canter to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back D.Bradbury to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back F.Lacroix to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
