The second half of the Christmas Day double header in the NFL 2024 season takes us to Texas as the Houston Texans the Baltimore Ravens in a match which could have massive implications on the playoff race in the AFC.
The Texans have already won the AFC South and will host a playoff match but they can improve their seeding. The Ravens have given themselves hope of winning the AFC North and will go top of the table here if they win and Pittsburgh lose the earlier game.
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans had the chance to win the AFC South at Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday and while they didn’t take their opportunity, results went their way on Sunday to ensure that they have won the division and now they can focus themselves on pushing for the number three seed and also ensuring that they manage the two weeks between now and the wildcard round where they will be looking to peak as they go about trying to make it to the Super Bowl.
The Texans didn’t look too bad in Kansas City at the weekend but they suffered a major blow when Tank Dell suffered a season ending injury so that is going to impact their offense here. CJ Stroud was just a little loose at the wrong times in that match. If he can tighten up here and the offense can handle the loss of Dell then they would have a chance. The Houston defence is going to face a serious test here though which will be good preparation for the playoffs.
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Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens gave their hopes of winning the AFC North a serious shot in the arm when they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at the weekend and if they can go to Houston and win there is every chance they will be in control of their own destiny in terms of winning the division heading into the last week. Whatever happens here they will have a chance of winning the AFC North next week but if they lose here they will need Pittsburgh to lose next week.
Baltimore go into this one off the back of a derby win over Pittsburgh where they would probably have been expected to be tested a lot more than they were. That should help them overcome the short week and being on the road here. They are likely to utilise their running game a lot here both to keep the Texans offense off the field but also to protect their defence which is competing four days after its previous game.
Betting
I expect the Baltimore Ravens to win this match but a 5.5 handicap for a road team on a short week isn’t an equation I like to be getting involved with but if the Ravens do come out on top I fancy this could be a higher scoring match than the lines would suggest. The line for this one is 45.5 points but that feels well within reach. This is like a mini Super Bowl. Beyonce will be the half time show so there is going to be a lot of attention on this game and we have two stud quarterbacks who will want to shine.
Generally holiday matches showcase things much more than the other games and I usually put a bit of a levy on the points naturally as a result of that. Baltimore could run all over this Houston defence but CJ Stroud has enough playmakers to find to put the Texans on the scoreboard as well, against a Ravens defence which has improved in recent weeks but which isn’t as tight as ones in the past. I fancy we will get beyond 45.5 points before this one is done.
Tips
Back Over 45.5 points for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Coral
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