We are into the second full week in January and that means the opening Grand Slam tournament of the year will begin on Sunday when the Australian Open takes place in Melbourne with 128 men looking to open up their year in style.
Jannik Sinner did exactly that last year when he landed the first of the two Grand Slam titles that he won on the year. He is back in Melbourne this week looking to make a successful defence of his crown but a good field is out to stop him.
Recent Winners
2024 – Jannik Sinner
2023 – Novak Djokovic
2022 – Rafael Nadal
2021 – Novak Djokovic
2020 – Novak Djokovic
2019 – Novak Djokovic
2018 – Roger Federer
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
The Format
As ever in a Grand Slam the draw is pre-determined and the brackets have been drawn ahead of the tournament. Each match in the event is the best of five sets but unlike back in the day there will be a tiebreak in the deciding set. Should the score reach 6-6 in the final set a champion’s tiebreak will be played where the first to 10 points wins the match. The title will be decided on the third Sunday as always.
Top Quarter
Jannik Sinner isn’t just the defending champion, he is the world number one as well and as such he is in the top quarter of the draw as he looks to make a successful defence of his title. He is scheduled to meet the home player Alex de Minaur in the quarter final if the section goes to the rankings. Six other seeds will be out to stop that from happening and they are Francisco Cerundolo, Karen Khachanov, former finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune, Hubert Hurkacz and Flavio Cobolli.
There are a few players in this quarter who would have been seeded in a Grand Slam last year but have fallen down the rankings enough to be dangerous unseeded players. They include Nicolas Jarry, Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Tallon Griekspoor. Cameron Norrie is another who has fallen into that category while the former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini is in this section too. Others of note include Alex Michelsen, Alexander Bublik and Botic van de Zandschulp.
Second Quarter
Taylor Fritz finished 2024 very strongly and has already won the United Cup alongside his USA teammates so he will be coming in here as a very confident number four seed and he is the highest ranked player in the second quarter of the draw. He is scheduled to run into the finalist here last year in the quarter final in Daniil Medvedev but the seeded players out to stop that from happening are Alexei Popyrin, Frances Tiafoe, Andrey Rublev, Lorenzo Musetti, Ben Shelton and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
Some real entertainers are in this quarter without a seeded number next to their name. Jenson Brooksby is one of those but the main two are Denis Shapovalov and Gael Monfils while Borna Coric and Cristian Garin are fairly well known as well. Pablo Carreno Busta and Roberto Bautista Agut are a pair of Spaniards who will be wanting to go well while Brandon Nakashima, Stan Wawrinka, Matteo Arnaldi and Rinky Hijikata are others who might be worth a watch.
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Third Quarter
Carlos Alcaraz will go in search of a first Australian Open title from the third quarter where he is the highest seeded player but with Novak Djokovic dropping down to seven in the rankings one of the high ranked men was going to draw a short straw and it is the Spaniard with the pair scheduled to meet in the last eight. Jordan Thompson, Seb Korda, Jack Draper, Grigor Dimitrov, Jiri Lehecka and Tomas Machac are the other seeds in this quarter who probably wish that they wasn’t.
Two veterans are obvious players among the unseeded fraternity in this quarter. They are David Goffin and Fabio Fognini while Reilly Opelka is scheduled to be in this section and looking to do some damage with his big serve. Home players Thanasi Kokkinakis and Aleksandar Vukic will hope to use the home crowds to their advantage while Alexander Shevchenko had a decent enough United Cup experience and could be someone to watch as a result of that.
Bottom Quarter
Alexander Zverev has made his way up to number two in the world rankings and he is the top seed in the bottom quarter of the draw as he looks to finally get his hands on a Grand Slam trophy. He is due to meet Casper Ruud in the quarter final if the section goes to the seeding but six players will be out to stop that happening and want to be the seed in the last eight themselves. They are Sebastian Baez, Arthur Fils, Ugo Humbert, Tommy Paul, Alejandro Tabilo and the Adelaide finalist Felix Auger-Aliassime.
As is the case throughout the draw, there is a standout unseeded player in this quarter as well. That is Nick Kyrgios who makes his Grand Slam return in this tournament. Other unseeded players to note could be Nikolai Basilashvili, Jan-Lennard Struff, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Kei Nishikori and the former semi-finalist Lucas Pouille. A couple of other Australian players will be looking to use home support to their advantage. They are James Duckworth and Christian O’Connell.
Outright Betting
I’ll go with a couple of outright bets for this tournament with the first being the man who has just lifted the United Cup and who made the final of the last Grand Slam that he played and the ATP World Tour Finals title showdown in Taylor Fritz. That has all happened in the last four months and so the fact that we can get 30/1 on him I can’t avoid taking him. In the United Cup, Fritz had a lot of competitive tennis so while some can come into this tournament undercooked this close to the off season and he prone to a shock early, he shouldn’t be in that boat. In Turin at the World Tour Finals he beat Daniil Medvedev which bodes well should they meet in the quarter final while Alex de Minaur and Alexander Zverev were among his victims too. I think given he is number four in the world and doesn’t have the toughest first week schedule, Fritz is overpriced.
I’m staying with an American player in the other half of the draw as well in Tommy Paul. He is in a mini-section where Casper Ruud is the main seed and I don’t think that is a bad part of the draw and were Alexander Zverev to meet Nick Kyrgios in the third round this quarter could get a bit messy very quickly. Paul won the title in Stockholm in October, has gone up to number 12 in the world and he shook off some rust with a couple of wins in Adelaide last week before going down in three to Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semi-final which I see as no bad thing. He had a competitive hit there and losing gives him enough rest ahead of this tournament so I’ll pay to see how well he goes in a part of the draw which might lead him to having an easier path to the second week than it looks.
Quarter Betting
I have to say there isn’t a huge amount that I like in the quarter betting and I’m definitely not going anywhere near that third quarter where Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Grigor Dimitrov and Jack Draper are all in it. When there are a couple of good players in a quarter I’ll take a chance somewhere but four of them makes it harder so I’ll leave that section alone and go up to the top quarter where I’ll take on Jannik Sinner.
I have to admit I’m not going to be massively against the Italian but Nicolas Jarry has the ammunition to either take the racquet out of the Sinner hands or at the very least keep him on court for a while and keep him honest and perhaps soften him up a touch. I like Karen Khachanov who is in the other half of the quarter. Khachanov finished 2024 really well with a title in Kazakhstan, a final in Vienna and semi-final in Paris and in that run he had wins over Matteo Berrettini, Alex de Minaur, both of whom are in this quarter, as well as Alexei Popyrin and Grigor Dimitrov. That might be why he has only played one event this season and even though he lost in the first round he should be confident enough to have a good go at this section, especially if Sinner falls by the wayside.
Tips
Back T.Fritz to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with BetVictor (1/2 1-2)
Back T.Paul to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 0/5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back K.Khachanov to win 1st Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with William Hill
Back him here:
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