There are golf tournaments that are classed as majors and then there are tournaments which could carry the major title but aren’t classified as such and the PGA Tour event this week definitely falls into the latter category as Jack Nicklaus once again plays host to the cream of the 2016 game in The Memorial Tournament.
The top three in the golfing galaxy all head to Muirfield Village this week as the main cast list but the extras aren’t too shabby either. Among the top names entering the tournament is the defending champion David Lingmerth, the man who snatched the title from Justin Rose in a playoff 12 months ago.
Recent Winners
2015 – David Lingmerth
2014 – Hideki Matsuyama
2013 – Matt Kuchar
2012 – Tiger Woods
2011 – Steve Stricker
2010 – Justin Rose
2009 – Tiger Woods
2008 – Kenny Perry
2007 – KJ Choi
2006 – Carl Pettersson
The Course
Muirfield Village is a really good course. As well as being the regular host of this tournament the course also staged the 2013 Presidents Cup which shows just how well thought of the place is.
It is a par 72 which measures 7,392 yards. That only tells part of the story of the course though really. Firstly it would be wrong of us not to point out that the course is playing its full length this year and could play longer if the bad forecast of the opening day becomes a reality.
That means the rough is very penal particularly with firm and fast greens so we’re looking at something not too dissimilar in terms of a test to that of Sawgrass a couple of weeks ago albeit without the crazy nature of those greens.
Generally Jack Nicklaus courses are second shot courses and this one is certainly no different. There are vast spaces off the tee but the greens are tiny and hard to find. Those who can’t find them will have to scramble well to compete so this is sure to be a fantastic week with this field taking the test of this course.
The Field
It is a rare event that has six of the top eight in the world in it that isn’t a major tournament but that is what we have at this tournament. Only Henrik Stenson who is playing in Sweden and Adam Scott who is preparing for the US Open don’t tee it up from that elite group but that still leaves us with a stellar field.
Not only do we have the big names on show but we have former champions back for more in the form of Matsuyama, Kuchar, Els and Jim Furyk among others not to mention some of the best young talent on the tour. This really is a huge week in the offing.
Market Leaders
Jason Day is the favourite for the tournament this week. He can be backed at the 13/2 mark and for me he is very much the man to beat around here. Day showed at Sawgrass how his tee to green game doesn’t have to be perfect to get the job done. Quite simply his short game is a phenomenon but he’s still plenty short enough in a field of this quality.
Jordan Spieth won last week and goes into this week as a 7/1 chance. The way he putted last week makes him a real danger around here but I suspect or should I say worry that the course will play too long for him. If it doesn’t he should be bang in contention.
Rory McIlroy will probably have liked what he saw when he arrived at Muirfield Village this week. A course that is soft and playing long is just up his street but the firm greens might not be. That said McIlroy is a confident beast right now having won the Irish Open two weeks ago and he is another who can be expected to be right there at around the 15/2 mark.
Hideki Matsuyama comes next at 16/1. The champion of two years ago has already won in Phoenix this season and will head into the tournament confident but I just wonder if he is as good in soft conditions. Time will tell on that regard.
Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar are 22/1 shots this week with Rickie Fowler next at 25/1. Bubba Watson is a 30/1 shot with Patrick Reed at 40/1. It is 50/1 bar those already named.
Main Bets
As with the event in Sweden I’m going with two main bets this week. It is difficult to break this field down and in truth I’ve not ummed and aahed over picks this long for a while. Logic would dictate that the winner may well come from the main three and certainly one or two will fill the frame but with six places being offered by most firms and seven by one we can still chase some place money in the hope that our picks pip the big guns to the title.
My first pick is the form man Matt Kuchar who conveniently has already won around this golf course which is a boost when taking on the big three. Kuchar’s last three outings has seen him tied for third in The Players, finish solo third in the Byron Nelson and then tied for sixth at the Dean & Deluca last week.
We know what we get with Kuchar. He is 15th in strokes gained from tee to green which increases to 11th in the overall strokes gained stats and he is third on the scoring average on Tour this year. The way Kuchar is hitting it coupled with an incredible record here which includes seven top 15s in 10 years should make him a strong contender this week.
My other pick is another man who was in that tie for third at TPC Sawgrass and that is Justin Thomas. I always thought this was a course he could go well on so I’m even more interested now that I know the course is playing long. His length is very much an asset now.
This is a second shot course so the fact Thomas is 12th in the strokes gained approaching the green stat is very much a positive as is his run at TPC Sawgrass. Thomas saw his good friend Spieth win last week and that is likely to inspire him this week. At 50/1 the American looks a shade overpriced to me here.
Outsiders
I’m going with three outsiders this week although it is only a credit to the quality of the field that two of them can be termed as such. All three fit my long but accurate off the tee and solid into the greens profile that I’m looking for.
Russell Knox has an excellent record on Nicklaus courses. At The Honda Classic he has finished second and third in the last three years while at the Heritage his last three outings read 9, 18, 2 and even here last year he was inside the top 20. Since most of those performances he has won the WGC event over in China to elevate him to a whole new level and that is big.
One of the reasons why Knox is so good on these courses is his tee to green game where he is in the top 10 on the PGA Tour in fairways hit and he leads the Tour in greens in regulation. If that isn’t enough he sits inside the top 10 in scrambling this year too.
As well as his win in China, Knox was second in Mexico and still came in the top 20 at The Players Championship despite dunking three balls into the drink on the infamous 17th hole on the Saturday there. In between then and now he came second in a stop off in Ireland so this is a real form horse. He has to be overpriced at 60/1.
Another man who is back to real form and has a win behind him this season is Charl Schwartzel and he’s another who likes Nicklaus courses and seemingly this one in particular. I’m prepared to ignore his 2015 form because he had that massive blowout when leading in South Africa and that seemed to affect his whole game for 12 months.
Prior to that Schwartzel had finishes of 22, 19, 8 and 8 around here and in the Honda Classic he had top 15 finishes in 2011, 2012 and 2013. He also has previous top 15 finishes in the Canadian Open and The Heritage.
Schwartzel is a player who fits many trends. He is ninth on Tour in strokes gained approaching the green – a huge stat on Nicklaus designs and he’s 12th overall in strokes gained. He is 12th in scoring average on the tour and safely inside the top 15 for scrambling. Every statistical form box is ticked and after his win at the Valspar the form one is too so I’m expecting a big week from Schwartzel.
Finally I’m going to give another chance to Jamie Lovemark. Lovemark was in the final group in the first tournament of the year on a Nicklaus course this year – the CareerBuilder Challenge but couldn’t quite get over the line. Since then he’s been sixth at Bay Hill, 18th in Houston and second in New Orleans – all eye catching results.
Lovemark’s long game was in good order at Wentworth last week and it has been like that on the PGA Tour all season particularly off the tee. He is fifth in scrambling too so he’s another who ticks many boxes and that’s enough for me.
Tips
PLACED – Back M.Kuchar to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Thomas to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Knox to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back C.Schwartzel to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Lovemark to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
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