The start of a classic weekend at Epsom Downs with the Oaks the big race on the Friday. There’s a disappointingly small field for this renewal but it’s still an interesting race. I’m taking 2 in that as well as 1 more in the preceding handicap.
4.30 Epsom: The Oaks
Only 9 runners line up this year for the fillies classic over 12 furlongs and we have a warm favourite in Minding. However, the most interesting thing about the Oaks is the frequency of, what appears on paper, a shock. In the last 8 years, we’ve had just 1 winning favourite yet 5 winners at 20/1 or more, including last year’s 50/1 victory, Qualify.
Minding, from the O’Brien yard, trades around Evens and has, by far, the best form in the race. She won the 1000 Guineas well at Newmarket before just getting outpointed in the Irish equivalent on ground that was maybe a little too soft. She also received a head injury leaving the stalls that day. The biggest concern for me is her stamina but, if she settles and stays, it’s fair to say she should win this comfortably. However, I’m buoyed by those big price upsets in 5 of the last 8 years.
O’Brien saddles 2 others in Somehow and Seventh Heaven who both won their trials in listed events. For sure, they need to improve but both look likely to be suited by the trip and it wouldn’t surprise me to see either of them eclipse their more fancied stablemate. There’s one other Irish challenger in the form of Turret Rocks for Jim Bolger. She was 6th behind Minding in the 1000 Guineas but looks better suited to this longer trip. The worry for me is the ground which remains on the soft side of good which will not suit this filly.
Skiffle has been supplemented for this by Charlie Appleby and has the excellent William Buick on board but 6/1 looks an incredibly skinny price and she’s not for me at those odds. Architecture has claims for Hugo Palmer and is very closely matched on her running in the Lingfield Oaks behind Seventh Heaven. She doesn’t appear to have the scope of some of the others so, again at the price, I’ll take her on.
It leaves us with 3 big priced outsiders and the one I’ll leave out is the rag, Australian Queen who struggled in the Musidora. She’s no forlorn hope especially if there’s more pace on but 66/1 is probably an accurate reflection of her chance. The first filly to carry my money will be the Mick Channon trained Harlequeen. She will love the ground, relish the trip and comes here with loads of scope for improvement having raced just 3 times. In winning her maiden, she recorded a RPR of 88 which was bettered only by Minding in this field. On her seasonal reappearance, she finished 2nd behind Linguistic over 10 furlongs when staying on best of all. It looked all over a step up in trip would suit but, instead, she took her chance in the Musidora which was won in impressive fashion by So Mi Dar. Despite finishing 4th, she was only just edged out of 2nd and again looked in need of this trip. If she settles better (does have a tendency to pull early on), a price of 20/1 looks very appealing indeed.
The 2nd bet is Diamonds Pour Moi. She is a filly trained by Ralph Beckett who has a cracking record in the Oaks, having won it twice in the last 8 years with Look Here and Talent, both starting at 20/1 or bigger. I’m backing her to land the hat trick and there is enough to suggest she’ll run a big race. She’s only raced twice in her life, winning her 1 mile maiden before taking on Somehow in the Cheshire Oaks where she was beaten into 3rd. Strictly on the form book, that isn’t good enough but she has bags of potential and should come on heaps for that run. I fully expect her, with her limited mileage, to improve past a number of these and with no concerns over stamina, she should be running on at the end. She’s another who, at 20/1, looks good value.
PLACED – Back Harlequeen (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
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Back Diamonds Pour Moi (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Betfred (1/4 odds 1-3)
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3.45 Epsom
The Investec Mile is run 45 minutes earlier and a field of 12 are expected to contest this Class 2 handicap. At 5/1 the field, there are several in with chances. Dutch Uncle is the favourite and has good form in the book whilst Persun and Fieldsman are both course winners and 3 of the field arrive here having won last time out.
However, the one for me is the bottom weight Alcatraz. He’s lightly raced and gets in here off a mark of 83 which I’m certain he’ll be much better than in due course. He originally raced in Ireland finishing behind the likes of Stormfly and Giovanni Canaletto. He’s run 3 times in this country, first winning his maiden over this trip at Chepstow on soft going. He then followed up with a pair of 3rd’s in handicaps off this mark.
The impressive run and the one which makes him a standout bet here is his reappearance over 10 furlongs at Windsor. He finished 3rd, less than a length behind the 2nd horse home Dutch Uncles who reopposes on 3lb worse terms. He looked like a drop back down to this trip would suit as he pulled hard and it was also thought he’d come on lots of that run. The form is sold with the winner since placing in a listed race and the 4th horse home winning a valuable handicap at the Dante meeting. The handicapper hasn’t touched his mark, he will like the easy going and now has a tongue tie fitted. He looks a most solid punt at around 7/1.
Back Alcatraz (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 with Boylesports (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
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