The opening day of The Open is always a big occasion but this year with Sky broadcasting the opening tee shot live at 6.35am it feels even bigger than usual at Royal Troon and as such now seems like a good time to preview the huge day.
The opening tee time is 6.35am and the last group out set off at 4.16pm so it is a massive day of golf. All the three balls have been priced up as has the first round leader so we’ll attack both angles here.
First Round Leader
Whenever we’ve got involved in this market in the past we have stressed the need to focus on the half of the draw that will have the better of the conditions. The only problem with that is this is links golf and the conditions switch multiple times a day but looking at the forecast the wind is expected to kick up heading into lunchtime and a few hours after.
The forecast would suggest going out very early and very late might be the best way to do things so we’ll focus our attention on the first half a dozen groups out onto the golf course and the last half a dozen or so.
Among the early starters that will get the attention are the home hero Colin Montgomerie, Luke Donald and Marc Leishman who are all out in the opening group. It might be that they get ideal conditions but first group out especially with a home player in it seems a little too early to me.
Jeunghun Wang, Richie Ramsay and last week’s winner Alex Noren are all out fairly early and it wouldn’t be a massive surprise if they go well but I think there is a chance worth taking on another early starter who went well last week in Danny Lee.
Lee has the game that should serve him well around here and he has the mindset to think his way around the place too. Lee shot four under par rounds on a tricky layout at Castle Stuart last week and that should have prepped him nicely for the tougher section of this course. If he can post something in the 60s it might stand the test of time.
Moving into the later groups and the likes of Matthew Southgate, Callum Shinkwin, Fabian Gomez and Tyrell Hatton are all going out but I’m going to take a chance on the fast starting Spaniard, Rafa Cabrera-Bello.
He doesn’t quite fit the last six group criteria but he is only one group prior to that so he should get to the back nine when it is at its calmest which is what you want. The first 6-7 holes are birdie chances regardless of the wind. Cabrera-Bello is playing good golf this year, is long enough off the tee to clear most of the danger and like most Spanish players has the imagination to get around the greens. Winning might be beyond him this week but a good start isn’t especially if conditions do ease for him around the turn.
Thursday 3 balls
I’m not going to preview every group else I’ll be here forever. There are four groups I like and as luck would have it a couple of them are the really marquee groups but there are so many groups going out on Thursday you do need to pick and choose a little.
My first bet tees off at 9.03am and is the group of Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth and Shane Lowry where the Irishman is 3/1 which is too big for me. Rose and Spieth are fantastic players, better than that even but I’m not convinced by any stretch that Rose is fit and I’ve mentioned elsewhere that his record in this tournament isn’t at all great while Spieth doesn’t always start as well as he finishes especially when playing a track for the first time.
Shane Lowry has got off to fast starts in both the majors so far this season and prepares himself to peak in them so I’m expecting him to begin quickly here. He is comfortable on the links and should find this course to his liking. I expect him to be solid from the start and 3/1 is just too big to ignore.
Three groups later at 9.36am all eyes will be on the Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson and Hideki Matsuyama group where I believe the Japanese player is a big price. Links golf doesn’t appear to be Bubba’s thing even though he can sail over all the danger. He likes to see the shots and you don’t see them all around here.
That leaves McIlroy and Matsuyama and we’ve seen evidence of McIlroy struggling on practice days. We shouldn’t take too much from practice rounds but it isn’t ideal and we know heading here he wasn’t in the greatest form. I fancy he might struggle out of the gate but Matsuyama is the solid sort of player who takes what the golf course yields and that gets you far around here. He might not need the sort of score you would anticipate so I’ll go with Japan’s number one at a big price.
Nicolas Colsaerts heads out at 10.53 alongside Rodney Pampling and Patton Kizzire and that is a group I like for the Belgian. He comes into this tournament in really good form. He finished third in Scotland last week and was right there in France for the first 40 or so holes and this track should be good to him with his length.
Rod Pampling hasn’t offered much in recent times while Kizzire’s ball flight might not be suited to this place and he will be playing links golf for the first time as a pro. I think this is all about Colsaerts and if he hits the ball well and stays out of the traps he should win this group with a bit in hand.
Finally I can’t ignore Andy Sullivan in the afternoon. I’ve watched a lot of the excellent Sky coverage this week and you can tell Sullivan has got his confidence back. He is bouncing around enjoying life like he was when he was in form last year and really I don’t see where the obstacles are in James Hahn and Satoshi Kodaira.
Admittedly I don’t know a huge amount about Kodaira and anyone who is here deserves credit but I’m into Asian golf and if he was a standout superstar in the making over there like a Anirban Lahiri or a Byeong-Hun An was I probably would know more about him. We know about James Hahn and he isn’t offering too much. I expect Sullivan to go well all week and it can start here.
Tips
Back D.Lee First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back R.Cabrera-Bello First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-7)
Back him here:
Back S.Lowry to beat J.Rose & J.Spieth for a 3/10 stake at 4.00 with Betfred
Back H.Matsuyama to beat R.McIlroy & B.Watson for a 3/10 stake at 3.60 with Betfred
WON – Back N.Colsaerts to beat R.Pampling & P.Kizzire for a 4/10 stake at 2.20 with Betfred
Back them here:
WON – Back A.Sullivan to beat J.Hahn and S.Kodaira for a 4/10 stake at 1.90 with Bwin
Back him here:
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