One of the biggest regular weeks on the PGA Tour is the Arnold Palmer Invitational and it is the tournament in question this week. A select but high class field head to Bay Hill to play in front of the legendary American golfing star and we nearly always get a good week with the players inspired by the greatness of their host.
Matt Every is certainly a player who is inspired when he tees it up here. He has won this tournament for the last two years and is back to seek the hat-trick this week. He is 80/1 to win again but that only highlights the quality that is opposing him.
Rory McIlroy is the favourite every time he tees it up at the minute and that is no different this week. He begins as the 11/2 favourite but let’s not kid ourselves, nobody is playing better golf right now than Adam Scott. He is 8/1 to win a third successive tournament that he has entered. Henrik Stenson comes next in the betting at 14/1 ahead of Justin Rose and Jason Day who are both 16/1.
Bay Hill Golf Club and Lodge is the venue again this week. Like Copperhead last week this course has been given a makeover with new grasses installed so the course may return to the difficulty of old after a fairly easy week last year. Sources who have seen the course in person this week tell me it is in immaculate condition.
The course is 7,419 yards long and plays to a par 72 and after the fairways were significantly widened last year the course is now a second shot and short game layout. You have to find these greens and when you do you need to short stick in good order to take advantage of doing so. The ability to scramble is never a bad thing in America.
I might regret not taking Adam Scott yet again but at 8/1 he can just win again if he is good enough to do so. I was within a millimetre of pushing the place bet button on Henrik Stenson who has unbelievable course form here but in the end I decided his 14/1 price was very cramped.
My first pick has already won on the PGA Tour this season and that is Hideki Matsuyama. Matsuyama’s all round game is up there with most. He can be erratic off the tee but that isn’t an issue this week with the wide fairways. His iron shots and his putting are of the highest order though as he showed Rickie Fowler up close in the playoff in the Phoenix Open a month or so ago.
Matsuyama sits fifth in strokes gained from tee to green on the PGA Tour this year and he’s inside the top 25 for proximity to the hole. He’s going to give himself plenty of birdie looks this week and sitting fourth in birdies or better on tour recent history suggests he will take more than his fair share of them. Now he is over an injury he can get back to contending beginning with this week.
When we’re on the PGA Tour and we are on a second shot golf course with good putting required I can’t help but get stuck into Zach Johnson and I’m not going against that this week. I expect a really good show from The Open champion.
Johnson has five top 11 finishes in the 12 starts he has had in this tournament and he comes into the week inside the top 30 for greens in regulation. We know he’s one of the best putters in the world and having been T9 here last year and improved again since then he should be a leading player this week.
Jason Kokrak seems to enjoy life around Bay Hill. He was fourth here in 2014 and sixth in 2015 where indifferent final rounds put paid to his chances but he showed at Riviera a couple of weeks ago that he can handle the pressures of the final round. He found Bubba Watson a shot too good for him that week but he held himself together when the heat cranked up to its highest point and that is a big factor for me this week.
Kokrak’s length gives him a big advantage this week and having seen the order his game was in at Riviera and then combining that to his record around this golf course in recent years it is a no brainer to include him in our staking plan.
Finally I’m going to take a chance on a man who got a great caddie on the bag in Fluff Cowan, Jim Furyk’s caddie. With Furyk on the sidelines it was a great bit of work by the Korean Sung Kang to secure one of the most respected and experienced caddies on the circuit and it has certainly worked out for him.
Kang’s last four outings have resulted in finishes of T17 T8 T10 and T22 and some of those efforts have been on tougher tracks than this one. He is hitting the ball nicely at the minute and making plenty of birdies. If he can just tighten up a bit and be more patient on the tougher holes there is a real big finish in him soon. At a three figure price I’ll pay to see if that is this week.
Back H.Matsuyama to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back Z.Johnson to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 61.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-6)
Back J.Kokrak to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 81.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-5)
Back S.Kang to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
