The first Masters 1000 title of the year will be won and lost on Sunday when the final of the ATP Indian Wells competition takes place as Carlos Alcaraz meets Daniil Medvedev in a tasty looking BNP Paribas Open conclusion.
One player is playing for the world number one spot while the other is looking for a fourth title in a row. However this one plays out it is nicely setup for a wonderful final to what has been a very good week of tennis.
Carlos Alcaraz
The US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz is playing in just his third tournament of the year and this will be the third final he has competed in during that span. He won the title in Buenos Aires but lost in Rio de Janeiro however if he comes out on top in this final he doesn’t just win in Indian Wells for the first time but he also returns to the number one spot in the world. The latter part will be secondary to him as he’ll have another chance next week with Novak Djokovic unable to compete in Miami but it is a nice bonus to pick up.
Alcaraz has looked immense this week. He has come through the draw without losing a set and in Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jannik Sinner he has seen off two creditable challengers in the previous two rounds. He is hitting the ball extremely well and has the movement to get into the net and cut points off in their prime which is often what makes him come out on top in these matches which could otherwise turn into baseline slug fests.
Daniil Medvedev
After losing out in surprising fashion to Seb Korda at the Australian Open in just the third round, Daniil Medvedev has gone on an incredible unbeaten run. He has played in three tournaments since then and has won the lot so he goes into this final on a 19 game winning streak and if he makes it to 20 then he would have won a fourth title in as many events. His brilliant start to 2023 can be highlighted by the fact his record so far is 24 wins to just two defeats.
Medvedev breezed through a couple of the draws in those tournaments he won but that hasn’t been the case this week. It has all been much more of a struggle in the sluggish conditions and he certainly hasn’t hidden what he has thought of the speed of the courts. To his credit though, he has battled away in conditions which don’t allow him to be at his very best, and he has come through to compete in a first Indian Wells final.
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Head-to-head
These two stars have met on just the one previous occasion and it came at Wimbledon in 2021 when Daniil Medvedev won in straight sets and lost just the seven games in the entire match. It should be stressed that was before the real big breakthrough of the Spaniard though so just how much we can take from that, particularly when that would have been in completely different conditions to the ones they face here, is open to debate.
Betting
I think based on what we have seen in the second part of this tournament in particular, Carlos Alcaraz has to be the bet here. I’m full of admiration for the way Daniil Medvedev has fought his way through this draw but Alexander Zverev should have dumped him out in the last 16 but could only convert on 2/17 break points while both Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Frances Tiafoe pushed him much closer than they probably should have done.
Clearly Alcaraz is a level or two above those players and he is in tip top form so I believe this final is on his racquet. It could be that the pressure of reaching number one in the rankings gets to him but he played in this situation in the US Open final against Casper Ruud and it didn’t hamper him at all. Whether this is a close match or Alcaraz pings the lids and gets in front and feasts on any growing Medvedev frustration, I expect the Spaniard to claim his first Indian Wells title here.
Tips
Back C.Alcaraz to beat D.Medvedev for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with William Hill
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