The second half of the Sunshine double on the ATP Tour takes place this week when the ATP Miami Open is played out, the latest Masters 1000 tournament which comes hot on the heels of the event in Indian Wells last week.
Carlos Alcaraz won that tournament but it is the man he beat in the final, Daniil Medvedev, who is the defending champion of this event. The Russian will be out to complete a successful defence like Alcaraz did last week but a top form is looking to deny him.
Recent Winners
2023 – Daniil Medvedev
2022 – Carlos Alcaraz
2021 – Hubert Hurkacz
2019 – Roger Federer
2018 – John Isner
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
2013 – Andy Murray
The Format
We have the usual size Masters 1000 event field for this tournament. 96 players will be in the field once qualifying has concluded with the 32 seeds straight into the second round. Qualifiers and those ranked outside the top 32 play in the first round to join them there. The draw has been completed already and the tournament is a straight knockout with every match over the best of three sets. There is a tiebreak in the final set should it reach 6-6. The champion is crowned on the second Sunday of the competition.
Top Quarter
There is no Novak Djokovic this week so Carlos Alcaraz is the number one seed as he looks to complete the Sunshine Slam. He is in the top quarter as a result of that and if everything goes to the numbers he will meet Hubert Hurkacz. Six other sees will be looking to avoid that match from happening. They are the American ace Sebastian Korda, Adrian Mannarino, Grigor Dimitrov, Ben Shelton, Lorenzo Musetti and Jordan Thompson.
As we saw last week, there are a number of players in each quarter who aren’t seeded who are household names. Gael Monfils is very much one of those in this section of the draw while Diego Schwartzman has come through qualifying to take his place in this quarter too. Brandon Nakashima will be looking to make use of home advantage while Roberto Bautista Agut is another qualifier who has a decent CV behind him.
Second Quarter
Alexander Zverev is the highest seeded player in the second quarter of the draw this week and he will be expected to make the semi-final. The man most likely to potentially stop him in terms of the seeds is Holger Rune in what would be a tasty quarter final were it to happen. Jiri Lehecka, Jan-Lennard Struff, Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov, Francisco Cerundolo and Christopher Eubanks will be the seeds looking to stop that from happening.
Felix Auger-Aliassime is probably the notable unseeded player in this quarter of the draw. From a British persuasion there is Dan Evans in this section as well while Lorenzo Sonego, Laslo Djere, Alexei Popyrin and Aleksandar Kovacevic are also players who will be hoping to make sufficient progress. There is also a return in this quarter of the draw of the former US Open finalist Kei Nishikori, who plays competitive tennis for the first time since July 2023.
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Third Quarter
It is the defending champion Daniil Medvedev who is the leading seed in the third quarter. He will hope to make a successful title defence from this section with Casper Ruud the man who will be a potential opponent in the quarter final should both progress that far. The seeds out to stop them are Cameron Norrie, Sebastian Baez, Ugo Humbert, the American number one Taylor Fritz, Nicolas Jarry and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
There is British interest among the unseeded players in this quarter with Jack Draper looking to have a better time of it in Miami to how he fared in Indian Wells. Botic van de Zandschulp is another eye catching name who will want a decent run. Max Purcell, Marton Fucsovics and Marcos Giron are three other players who could get a decent run going while Taro Daniel and Yoshihito Nishioka will be looking to roll back the years a bit.
Bottom Quarter
Jannik Sinner has been having a brilliant season and he will be looking to improve on that this week. The 2021 finalist here is the top seed in the bottom quarter and if everything goes to the seeding then he will meet Andrey Rublev in the quarter final. As with the other sections, there are six seeds looking to stop that from happening. They are Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Alexander Bublik, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tommy Paul, Frances Tiafoe and Tallon Griekspoor.
Three players jump out in terms of the unseeded players in this quarter of the draw. Andy Murray might well be playing in his last Miami Open so he will be looking to maximise his return while Matteo Berrettini is back from injury to compete this week. Denis Shapovalov is another player who has suffered injury issues and he looks to get back to the top end of the game through this quarter. Matteo Arnaldi and Christian O’Connell had good wins in Indian Wells last week and will want more here.
Betting
Alex de Minaur has been playing well over the last 18 months or so and you get the feeling that he is ready to win the biggest title of his career this week. He was unlucky in Indian Wells last week, losing out in one of the best matches of the tournament to Alexander Zverev and it could be that the two meet in the quarter finals again here, although plenty of tennis is to be played before then. It has to be said that his record in Miami isn’t very good but it wasn’t at any of the elite events until Canada last year but he has been contending in titles since then and on hard courts since the start of 2022 he has a 76:35 winning record so he is comfortable on the court now. He has moved into the top 10 in the world with his recent form and having won in Acapulco recently in similar conditions I think he is primed to go very well here.
Tommy Paul reached the semi-finals in Indian Wells last week and I think he could go well in backing that up here too. He is due to run into Jannik Sinner in the last 16 but he is only 2-1 down on the head to head against the Italian so he wouldn’t be completely without a chance in that match. Paul reached the last 16 here last year before he went down to Carlos Alcaraz and he has generally played well since then. Paul won in Dallas last month, made the final at Delray Beach and the semis in Indian Wells last week so this has been a good US leg of the season for Paul and at 40/1 I’ll pay to see if it continues with a deep run here.
Tips
Back A.de Minaur to win ATP Miami Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back T.Paul to win ATP Miami Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
