The semi-finals of the Australian Open begin in Melbourne Park on Thursday when both the ladies matches and the first men’s match takes place on the last really busy day of action on the Rod Laver Arena.
256 men and women arrived in Melbourne looking to get their hands on the first Grand Slam title of the year and that dream remains alive for just eight of them now as the tournament reaches the real business end.
Wednesday was a good day for followers of this blog as both the unders in the Raonic vs Monfils game safely landed and Jo Konta delivered the goods on the 10/1 quarter bet. Unfortunately we lost Azarenka but it was a profitable day nevertheless.
After a doubles semi-final the singles action begins when the overwhelming favourite to land the ladies title after Azarenka’s demise – Serena Williams – is in action when she faces Agnieszka Radwanska in a repeat of the 2012 Wimbledon final.
Radwanska has looked very good in this tournament and is clearly in wonderful form but no matter how well she has played prior to this match this is a different kettle of fish for her as the head to head record between the two highlights.
Serena has won all eight of their previous meetings and Radwanska has only won one set in that time so the task at hand here is pretty clear. There were murmurs that Serena was suffering with food poisoning prior to the Sharapova match but the Russian played some of her best tennis in that contest and still barely landed a blow on the American.
Putting it simply Radwanska just doesn’t have the power to compete with Serena and I fully expect her to get blown away again. I’ll happily take under 19.5 games in this one with it needing just an early break in each set for that to land.
I’m also going to take Serena on the aces handicap. She gives away 5.5 in this match but in two of her last four wins over Radwanska she has won the aces 12-1 and 11-4 and a repeat of that would be enough here. Radwanska is yet to serve more than three aces in a match this week and one of the matches she served three went three sets which I don’t see this one doing.
Contrast that to Serena’s 9, 7, 6, 3 and 13 aces and I think it is fair to say Serena is going to comfortably out-ace her Polish opponent.
In the other semi-final Angelique Kerber faces Britain’s Jo Konta. Konta has been sensational in this tournament so far and continues to impress. Her quarter final victory was a demolition job in any way you look at it.
In fairness since the opening round where she survived by the skin of her teeth, Kerber has been equally as good as Konta. I don’t think Azarenka was at her best in their quarter final but we shouldn’t take anything away from Kerber as she won very well.
There is an interesting dynamic here. Kerber is the favourite in a Grand Slam semi-final for the first time in her career which brings a different pressure and she has to get up after a huge win just 24hrs previously whereas Konta is in her first semi-final at this level.
Jo Konta has shown with each match how she is relishing the occasion and not letting the nerves get the better of her and if she can continue to do that I fully expect her to win a set here. Whether she can win another remains to be seen but she’s hitting the ball so well that I fully expect her to win at least one set.
Moving to the evening and the two biggest names in the male game right now meet for the 45th time as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer continue their rival of the ages. Djokovic levelled the head to head at 22-22 when he demolished Federer in the World Tour Finals finale at the o2 in November but the Swiss star will know he battered his Serbian foe in the round robin of that tournament.
It is a shame this isn’t the final because it is always a great occasion when these two meet especially in a Grand Slam but I’m expecting a really good semi-final nonetheless. Djokovic has looked vulnerable at times this week which will give Federer confidence but on the other hand the Serb seems to always raise it against the great one.
I would be surprised if Federer has enough to beat Djokovic unless Djokovic throws in one of those performances he gave against Simon but I don’t expect this to be all one sided. Their Grand Slam meetings generally have plenty of legs in them. They went four lengthy sets at both Wimbledon and the US Open last year and their Wimbledon final the year before went the distance.
I’m expecting this one to go at least four sets which makes me think that the 40.5 game line is achievable. Their last three five set battles have covered this line and this one can too.
Back S.Williams vs A.Radwanska – Under 19.5 games for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Ladbrokes
Back S.Williams (-5.5) to beat A.Radwanska on Aces Handicap for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfred
Back J.Konta to win a set for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Paddy Power
Back N.Djokovic vs R.Federer – Over 40.5 games for a 4/10 stake at 1.95 with Unibet
Blog tennis YTD: -8.09pts*
*losing outrights already added to total.
