The first Grand Slam of 2016 is upon us as the stars of the tennis world once again descend on Melbourne for two weeks of the highest quality tennis that the Australian Open often provides.
All eyes will be on Novak Djokovic as he looks to defend his title and win the opening major of the year for the sixth time in his career and a quick look down the draw would give the impression that he has every chance of going the distance again.
In many ways the draw is largely irrelevant where Djokovic is concerned such is the dominance he is currently enjoying in the game but with the extreme climates this tournament often encounters the quicker you can come through the earlier rounds is certainly a major advantage.
Djokovic looks a racing certainty to make the quarter finals where a potentially interesting test could come in the form of Jo-Wilfred Tsonga or Kei Nishikori. Were he to overcome that hurdle then Roger Federer could be waiting in a tasty semi-final before a final.
Djokovic is so good at the minute that you wouldn’t put it past him coming through all of that but there isn’t a lot of margin in his price and so I’ll head to the other half of the draw for my outright bet I think.
In years gone by that would mean starting with Roger Federer but the Swiss star is seeded third in this tournament and has landed the short straw with being in Djokovic’s half of the draw. Even were he to get as far as a meeting with the Serb not having any kind of payout secured when they meet isn’t ideal.
So it is definitely the bottom half for me where although there are a number of big names, danger men and form horses the potential for profit looks much bigger. Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka, David Ferrer and Andy Murray are all in this half of the draw as well as the recent Brisbane winner Milos Raonic.
If we start with the number two seed Murray the first thing to point out would be the quotes which have been labelled next to him saying if the impending birth of his child happens during the tournament he will pull out so that isn’t an ideal situation to be investing in. I’m not sure he has the beating of Djokovic anyway albeit the place cash will be in the bank by the time they meet.
Instead I’m going to swerve Murray and go with someone who on their day has shown they can beat the number one seed. The third quarter is a trappy little section with Nadal, Raonic and Wawrinka all in it but it is the latter that I’m going to side with.
Wawrinka is a former winner of this tournament and he always seems to grace the big stage with his best tennis and if he does that here he could not only come through the bottom half of the draw but give Novak a run for his money when he gets to the final.
Wawrinka warmed up for this tournament with a win in Chennai where he never dropped a set so his confidence will be high and at 12/1 he’s potentially the best value in the outright betting.
I’m going to have a go at a couple of quarter bets too. I don’t like taking Roger Federer on too often but Andreas Seppi beat him here last year and he’s already suffered a surprising defeat to Milos Raonic in 2016 so maybe he isn’t going to be the force he would like to be here.
There are a couple of names that it might be worth taking him on with. The leading Australian hope Nick Kyrgios is in this section of the draw but I suspect weight of expectation might lead to him coming up short so instead I’ll take a player who has made the semi-finals here for the last two years and three quarter finals in the preceding three years and that is Tomas Berdych.
It has taken the eventual winner to stop Berdych in this tournament in four of the last five years and I’m not sure Federer is going to be that man here. The Czech is obviously very comfortable in Melbourne and in this second section he looks the value alternative to Federer.
With Murray’s participation in doubt as well as his mindset with a child on the way in the near future he might just be worth taking on this week too. Credit where it is due to Murray, the Scot is probably the second most consistent player in the game right now but understandably his priorities might lie elsewhere at some point in this event.
Bernard Tomic won’t lack for support in this tournament and with the experienced Tony Roche in his corner he should really improve throughout 2016. I’ve always thought Tomic would be the best of the young Australians coming through in terms of consistency on all surfaces and he arrives in Melbourne in decent touch after a solid tune up in Brisbane.
He made it to the semi-finals there beating Kei Nishikori on the way and only went down in two tie-break sets to the eventual champion Milos Raonic so Tomic looks to have begun the year well and at 16/1 if he can get the better of Murray should they meet in the last 16 there might not be much else to beat.
Back S.Wawrinka to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 13.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back T.Berdych to win 2nd Quarter for a 2/10 stake at 9.00 with BetVictor
Back B.Tomic to win 4th Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Boylesports
