Most of the attention of the golfing world will be on Scotland this week but while the greats of the game are battling it out there, the second string head to Kentucky for the Barbasol Championship, which will be a key week for someone.
It might not carry the glitz and glamour of the Scottish Open but whoever wins here will be exempt on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour and that is never a bad thing. Trex Mullinax earned that reward last year when he won the title but he has chosen not to attempt to defend it.
Recent Winners
2022 – Trey Mullinax
2021 – Seamus Power
2019 – Jim Herman
2018 – Troy Merritt
2017 – Grayson Murray
2016 – Aaron Baddeley
2015 – Scott Piercy
The Course
We are back at the Keene Trace Golf Club in Kentucky for the fifth time this year. The track remains untouched as a par 72 which measures 7,328 yards and as we we’ve seen in the past a fairly low score is going to be required to win this tournament even allowing for the exceptionally large greens. There is plenty of humidity in the air which may well bring storms in so the greens are going to be soft which allows for another low scoring PGA Tour event.
We now have four years of data to go by when assessing the course but basically this tournament is like the shootouts at the beginning of the season. If you want to go by the statistics then accuracy off the tee is marginally better than length but ultimately this is a case of hit as many greens as possible and scramble well when you miss them. The winning scores at this venue have been low so a hot putter is a must.
The Field
As with the Scottish Open we have a mixture of PGA Tour players and DP World Tour players teeing it up here this week. This is a tournament which has launched careers as we have seen with Seamus Power and Trey Mullinax picking up their first PGA Tour wins at this event. Given the look at the field it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if another player walks away with a first title this week. Whoever does win here will qualify for The Open next week if they haven’t already done so which is a good incentive.
Taylor Pendrith was playing in the Presidents Cup at the end of last year so you would imagine his natural next move is to win a tournament like this. Other contenders from the PGA Tour include Lucas Glover, Peter Kuest and Kevin Streelman while the challenge from the DP World Tour is headed up by the likes of Ryo Hisatsune and Andy Sullivan. A couple of former champions in the field include Grayson Murray and Jim Herman.
Market Leaders
Taylor Pendrith blew up in the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic a couple of weeks ago but he is the 16/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. He has twice messed up in the final round of that tournament and having not got a win on the PGA Tour that is something that concerns me. The positive is on a soft course he has the length to tame this course but I’m not sure I want a 16/1 shot carrying my money with Sunday issues when he is expected to win.
Vincent Norrman is touted as a player for the future and he is a 22/1 second favourite to win the tournament this week. Norrman is another player who is looking for a first PGA Tour title this week. Like Pendrith, he is a long hitter so the softer conditions should play into his hands a little but I haven’t watched him recently and thought he is about to win anytime soon. He has the game to go well here but the price doesn’t interest me at all.
Peter Kuest has made a splash on the PGA Tour over the last couple of weeks and has gone from having to Monday qualify for tournaments to having special temporary status on the PGA Tour and it will be interesting to see how he copes with a little extra expectation here. If he repeats the efforts of the last two weeks his 25/1 price will look very big but the first week he was large free rolling after Monday qualifying and then last week he was guaranteed status once he made the cut. Now he has to keep earning to get full status and is third favourite. I wouldn’t write him off but his emotional reserves must be running low so he isn’t for me.
Akshay Bhatia and Lucas Glover at the other players who are shorter than 30/1 for the win this week. Both are 28/1. Glover has come onto a couple of leaderboards of late and looked as good with the putter in those events as he ever has but you wonder if that is the new him or just two freak weeks. In a low scoring event I can’t back a poor putter. Bhatia looked like he was ready to deliver earlier in the season but he has gone a little quiet recently.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week with the first being Grayson Murray. It is fair to say he is the marmite of the PGA Tour but he has won this event in the past, albeit at a different course, but he knows how to win and he showed that again on the Korn Ferry Tour recently too. Murray has switched between that tour and the PGA Tour this term but has still managed a T15 in Puerto Rico and T6 at the John Deere last week where he bookended his tournament with rounds of 64 and 65. Those sorts of rounds are only hit when you are hitting the ball well and in a lesser event here if he can replicate that he shouldn’t be far away.
The other main bet I like this week is Justin Lower. He sits inside the top 15 on the PGA Tour for strokes gained putting and when you consider that most of those above him in that statistic are over in Scotland this week that feels quite significant. Lower has three top 10s on the season and the two that caught my eye was the one in Bermuda in not too dissimilar company to what he’ll face here and the other was a couple of weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he shot -19 in a better field than this to come eighth. If he can stay in play from tee to green his putter could lap the field here.
Outsiders
I’ll take a couple of outsiders as well with the first of those being Cody Gribble. His form is very patchy these days but he recorded successive top 10 finishes earlier in the season in Puerto Rico and the Valspar and the latter week in particular would translate into potential for a decent finish here. The Puerto Rico event is similar to this one in terms of field quality but the top 10 at the Valspar which has extra status this year shows that he can be competitive at this second tier level. More recently he has finished T34 in the Canadian Open which had a deep field this year and T42 last week but he was -8 at halfway and just couldn’t push on over the weekend. That shouldn’t happen in this company so I’ll pay to see how he goes.
Jim Herman has won around here and with his exempt status coming to an end soon it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise if he pops up at what is pretty much a home game for him and delivers the goods again. In fairness, he has no real form to speak of but I did notice that in amongst his four rounds in a T63 at the John Deere Classic last week was a second round 63 and as I’ve mentioned a few times those rounds only get shot when you hit the ball well. On a course he’ll know very well if he has that ball striking with him he might be able to challenge for a fourth PGA Tour win. Course knowledge this week feels big with so many debutants in the field.
Tips
Back G.Murray to win Barbasol Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Lower to win Barbasol Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Gribble to win Barbasol Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Herman to win Barbasol Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
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