We will find out our first two semi-finalists in both the singles and the doubles draws at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals on Thursday when the first groups conclude.
The two singles matches in the Stan Smith group sees Roger Federer taking on Kei Nishikori before Novak Djokovic takes on Tomas Berdych. In the doubles Rohan Bopanna and Florin Mergea look to make it three wins from three when they take on the Italian pair of Bolelli and Fognini. Jamie Murray and John Peers face the Bryans in a knockout match to decide who else goes through.
The conspiracy theorists will be out in force for the early match but I don’t see Federer letting Nishikori win. I think Federer will beat the Japanese player and in normal circumstances I would back him to do it quite comfortably but the fact he only needs to win a set to secure the group puts me off backing him.
By the same token I’m not sure I can back Nishikori in any way either because he hasn’t been great this week so rather than guess who is going to be in what mindset throughout a match where the dynamics change all the time I’m going to leave that and focus on the evening session.
After his defeat to Federer on Tuesday night, Novak Djokovic knows he has to beat Berdych on Thursday night and beat him well if he’s to guarantee his qualification and I expect him to do that.
Admittedly if you look at the meetings between the two this season you will see that Berdych has kept it tight on all occasions. They have met three times and the Czech has won a set in two of those matches and lost the other in a pair of tie-breaks recently in Paris.
That said Berdych hasn’t played well this week at all. He served rotten against Federer and wasn’t much better against Nishikori and had Nishikori not gone missing for half a dozen games in the second set I’m sure the Japanese player would have won that in straight sets.
If Berdych is to keep this remotely close he has to serve twice as good as he has been and even that might not be enough given the quality of Djokovic’s return game. The world number one has far too much variety for a one trick Berdych and I fully expect the Serb to come through with plenty in hand.
Berdych must win in straight sets to qualify assuming that Nishikori has lost earlier in the day so that will be his aim. I don’t see three sets in this one and whoever loses the first set might jack it in mentally so I like under 20 games here.
Jamie Murray and John Peers will be partnering each other for the final time unless they beat the Bryans in the evening session. The two pairs have met twice this season and they have won one match each so that suggests there isn’t much between the two.
I’ve a feeling this match could go all the way given that it is a knockout match and neither pair will want to end their season prematurely so I quite like the 7/4 on it going 3 sets.
Murray’s presence and ability at the net can keep the Bryans back a little bit and there is more than enough quality in Peers’ strokes to keep his pairing competitive. I can see a couple of tie-breaks and then the match breaker in this one but however the first two sets go I certainly fancy the champions breaker before it is done.
Back N.Djokovic vs T.Berdych – Under 20 games for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Sportingbet
Back J.Murray/J.Peers vs B.Bryan/M.Bryan to go 3 sets for a 3/10 stake at 2.75 with Betway
Blog tennis YTD: -27.3pts
