It is semi-final Saturday at the Barclays ATP Tour Finals at the o2 Arena and those who have tickets to either session are likely to be rewarded with some fantastic tennis as four of the top five players in the world battle it out for spots in Sunday’s final.
After a high quality and at times fascinating pair of groups we are left with the cream of the crop as Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka have progressed to the knockout stages.
The opening semi-final sees the Nastase group winner Rafael Nadal taking on the runner-up from the Smith group in Novak Djokovic.
These two are no strangers to each other having met well over 30 times in the past including three times this year. Djokovic is well on the up in their recent matches and he goes into this last four clash as a heavy favourite.
On his very best form, the form we’ve seen from him for much of 2015, that would be justified but I’m not so sure we’ve seen anything like the best of the number one seed this week. He was well beaten by Roger Federer in his second group match and Tomas Berdych challenged him more than he might in Novak’s third game despite not really playing well himself.
Nadal might not have shown his very best this week but he’s looked the best he has for a while. He outclassed Wawrinka and Andy Murray in his opening two matches and showed his fighting spirit hasn’t waned when he out-marathoned David Ferrer on Friday and he’ll be feeling good about things right now.
I’ve a gut feeling that Nadal might sneak this. I believe he’s playing well enough to win but I’m going to go a little cautiously and take him with a 4.5 game start just in case this turns into a physical marathon, and it so easily could, and he is lacking a bit of something down the stretch.
I certainly think Nadal will be competitive for a large part of the match and if Djokovic isn’t on form he’ll beat him. If he is Novak might just win a close one.
The other semi-final is an all-Swiss tussle for the second year in a row. Federer got the job done in a real thriller 12 months ago and he’s a warm favourite to do that here. He will have had over 2 days off by the time this match begins so that will favour him but Wawrinka wasn’t really pushed by Murray so he won’t be too disadvantaged.
I’m already on Wawrinka at effectively a shade over 5/1 to win this match by virtue of backing him outright so I’m not going to get involved in this semi-final. I’ll sit back, enjoy it and hope Wawrinka gets a bit of revenge.
In the doubles the race for the year end number one continues and by the end of the semi-finals we may well have a clearer picture as to who will end up in that position.
The Bryan brothers currently lead the way with Horia Tecau and Jean-Julien Roger chasing them hard as are Ivan Dodig and Marcelo Melo. To add to the intensity of the race the Bryans will meet Tecau and Roger in the second semi-final.
The Bryans were involved in the titanic battle with Jamie Murray and John Peers on Thursday night when they escaped defeat by the narrowest margins and showed why they’ve won what they have by coming through when the chips were heavily against them.
I’m not so sure their run will continue here though. I think Rojer and Tecau have played the best tennis this week and they look a good price to come through there. The Wimbledon champions seem to have an affiliation with London these days and with the Bryans not quite on top form this week I’ll take the French-Romanian pairing to cause a surprise as far as the odds are concerned.
In the other match Dodig and Melo’s reward for sneaking out of the group is a clash with the eight seeds Rohan Bopanna and Florin Mergea. Bopanna and Mergea played well in their first two matches but there was a chink of light given to the rest when they were beaten by the Italian duo of Bolelli and Fognini.
Despite how well Bopanna and Mergea have done I expect Dodig and Melo to win but given I’m on them outright I’ve no need to push the boat out on them at skinny odds.
Back R.Nadal (+4.5 games) to beat N.Djokovic for a 4/10 stake at 1.95 with Unibet
Back J-J.Rojer/H.Tecau to beat B.Bryan/M.Bryan for a 4/10 stake at 2.50 with Coral
Blog tennis YTD: -22.05pts
