The Big Bash League finals begin on Friday when Qualifier 1 takes place on the Gold Coast as the top two in the table meet for a direct spot in the final when the Brisbane Heat go up against the Sydney Sixers at the Heritage Bank Stadium.
The equation for these two is simple. The winners progress straight through to the final which they will host on Wednesday while the loser will host the winner of the Saturday game in a second chance to make the title showdown.
Brisbane Heat
The Brisbane Heat have been the best team in the competition this season by a country mile but we have seen it time and time again that what happens in the first stage of a campaign means nothing when we get down to the business end of the campaign. This one isn’t do or die so that might allow the Heat to keep their form up but they took a bit of a trouncing in Perth in their last regular season game and that just creates a few doubts around them.
The big problem the Brisbane Heat have is for the second season in succession they have reached the latter stages of the competition and their better players have departed either on international duty or for other tournaments across the world. It was worrying how tamely they were beaten in Perth without some big players and those who are left are going to need to rally around each other and the senior ones will need to stand up and be counted.
Sydney Sixers
I don’t think we saw the best of the Sydney Sixers over the course of the regular season as a whole but there is no doubt that towards the end, with the business end of the campaign in sight, they have clicked into a much better groove and that is in keeping with how they tend to do their business in these things. They went to Perth and came out very strong winners in their last regular season game to set up two goes at making the final.
While they have that second chance to fall back on, the dangling carrot of hosting the final at the SCG where they are notoriously tough to beat is a big one. The key for the Sixers is that their batting delivered in the face of a daunting run chase in Perth. If that unit has two big games left in it then you would have to make the Sixers the favourites for this tournament because their bowling attack nearly always delivers, especially at the SCG where the final will be held if they win here.
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Key Players
Paul Walter has been named in the BBL team of the season and the Brisbane Heat are going to need a big all-round performance from their overseas star. They could probably cope if he is only acceptable with the ball but they really need some runs from him.
Josh Philippe is probably going to be the man to replace James Vince at the top of the innings and if he catches fire and gets the Brisbane Heat on the back foot, a much lighter Heat side in terms of depth could quickly start to panic.
Betting
While the Brisbane Heat have been the best team in the competition this season, we have to reflect on the fact that they will be without a number of players who played big parts of the season in the earlier part of the campaign. The likes of Colin Munro and Sam Billings have left now while Marnus Labuschagne and Usman Khawaja are away with Australia but they do have Matt Renshaw available but even though this batting unit looks light.
The Heat do have a decent attack but the Sydney Sixers aren’t a million miles behind in that department but they have a huge edge with the bat in this particular match even allowing for the fact there is no Steve Smith or James Vince. The other thing to factor into the equation is that the Sixers are used to playing these huge matches. They are in them every season and they have a captain who has experienced it all. I think there is more than an edge in favour of Sydney Sixers here which makes me think they are an acceptable bet at 4/5.
Tips
Back Sydney Sixers to beat Brisbane Heat for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with William Hill
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