The second semi-final of the Big Bash League sees the Melbourne Stars playing the defending champions Perth Scorchers. Not only is there a place in the final awaiting the winner but after Sydney Thunder saw off the Adelaide Strikers on Thursday the two sides in this match know the winner will host the Thunder in Sunday’s final.
That means there is even more than normal at stake here for both sides in a semi-final in which the bookmakers are finding it hard to separate the two sides. The two teams met as recently as the weekend when the Stars overwhelmed the Scorchers to not only seal their spot in the semis but to ensure they hosted it too.
Melbourne Stars have been up and down this season. After losing their first two matches they looked to be cruising into the playoffs when they had won four on the bounce but then came a surprising defeat to the Brisbane Heat which left their match with the Scorchers must win for them and win they did.
They have had to play the last few matches without John Hastings, Glenn Maxwell and James Faulkner who have all been away with Australia, as has Scott Boland but the fringe players coming in have been up to the task and the Stars will need them to be again here.
Perth Scorchers have been more up and down this year than we’ve become accustomed to them being which is a concern in itself for Justin Langer and his coaching staff but we’ve seen the Scorchers really rise to the big occasion in the knockout matches they have played in the past.
Perth will be without Shaun Marsh again here as he is away with the Australia ODI squad but Joel Paris has been released to play and more importantly since the weekend Jason Behrendorff has recovered from a niggle and he will play. The Scorchers are unbeaten with him in their side this season.
I guess the big question going into this semi-final is how much we take from the weekend game. The one thing we can certainly take from it is when the Stars need to win they can but I think it would be being unfair to judge the Scorchers on that particular game given that they were already into the semi-final.
The mental side of this semi-final could be interesting. The Scorchers have been in the semi-final of all four previous Big Bash campaigns and have never lost while the Stars have also been in every semi and they’ve never once made the final so if this goes down to the wire it will be interesting to see if mental baggage plays a part in the game.
Unfortunately the weather forecast isn’t the greatest for this match so it remains to be seen whether we will get a full 20 over match in. I’m already on the Scorchers outright so I wasn’t going to bet on the match result anyway but I do fancy the champions to win the game if the rain doesn’t get involved. That threat ensures I won’t bet on the match outcome.
Just in case the forecast is wrong though and we do get a full over game in then there is one bet I like which comes in the sixes market where I’m not expecting too many in what will be potentially heavy conditions on a track which might just do a bit having been hidden under covers earlier in the day.
The sixes line for the match is 11 which is pretty high for this ground anyway in normal conditions let alone in damp and heavy conditions but it is also high for a Perth match too as they don’t hit too many big sixes and they don’t concede many either as we saw when the two sides met in Perth at the weekend.
Add into the fact that this is a knockout semi-final where just winning is the overall aim rather than taking unnecessary risks and I think this line is a little high for a match of this magnitude in these conditions.
Back Under 11 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
