We have reached the knockout stages of the Champions Trophy with the first semi-final of the tournament taking place in Dubai on Tuesday as we have a repeat of the World Cup final between India and Australia.
Australia got the better of the Indians on their own patch in that final so India will be looking for revenge here as they look to make it through to the final. Australia can pretty much confirm their 50 over dominance if they win this match.
India
India are the only team in the competition with a perfect record. It helps that they haven’t had to play a match in Pakistan where the rain has been and obviously the fact that they have had all of their matches in Dubai, so haven’t had to travel anywhere and know exactly how these pitches play, is even more of an advantage to India so they will go into this semi-final as pretty emphatic favourites to get the job done and progress to the final.
They probably haven’t shown their best with the bat but the caveat to that is that the conditions in Dubai have been much more friendly for the bowlers than the pitches in Pakistan have been. With that in mind, the India bowling unit have delivered the goods and they will need to continue to do that here because I think there is a case to be made that this is the strongest batting unit that they have come up against in the competition to date.
Australia
The world champions Australia have had their battles with the rain in this competition but they managed to get over the line in the one match which they were able to complete and that was enough to book them their spot in this semi-final. They are clearly at a disadvantage going into this match because they have had to travel to Dubai and will need to get used to the very different conditions but you get the impression that they will use that as motivation.
Australia will need to bowl much better in this match than they did in the one against England earlier in the tournament but the conditions are likely to help with that you would imagine. The big test will be whether they are able to impose themselves on the match with the bat like they did against their auld enemy. If they are able to do that then it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world if they are able to pull off the upset and make it through to a second straight 50 over final.
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Team News
India are expected to play four spinners in this match with Kuldeep Yadav and Varun Chakravarthy joining Ravi Jadeja and Axar Patel in a side which will have just Mohammad Shami as a front line seamer and Hardik Pandya bowling the other seam overs.
Australia will be forced into a change for this semi-final with Matt Short ruled out through injury. Cooper Connolly was called into the squad to replace him and he is expected to go straight into the starting XI in conditions which should suit spin. Spencer Johnson could make way for Tanveer Sangha.
Betting
The bookmakers look to have caught up on the run line on this ground after three low scoring matches but that hasn’t necessarily transformed its way to the boundary line which is a fairly high looking 49.5. In those three games we have seen 45 boundaries, 42 and 38 and you would argue that the 38 was against a New Zealand side who had the deepest and best batting unit of the three teams that India have faced on this ground.
I’ve mentioned in each of the India games that I have previewed that the pitches are playing tough here because of the ILT20 competition last month but this is a pretty big ground anyway. This match is being played on the wicket that India faced Pakistan on and there is talk of India playing four frontline spinners and Australia playing three with the likes of Marnus Labuschagne offering up a part-time option. Boundaries are going to be hard to come by in a competitive match here so I like the under.
Tips
Back Under 49.5 boundaries for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
