Cheltenham Festival
Today is the day of the Queen Mother Champion Chase and the day when we see whether Un De Sceaux is the superstar we think he could be. Stakes have been kept to a minimum and our only interest in the big race is Sizing Granite to spring a surprise in the ‘without the favourite’ market. There are 6 other races on a very difficult looking card and we have previewed them here.
1.30pm: Neptune Novices Hurdle
This is another race that the Irish traditionally do well in and it’s also one of the best races at the meeting for the leading fancies, with each of the last 8 winners starting at 7/1 or less. Willie Mullins bids to win this race for the 4th time in 9 years and has a strong hand saddling 3 of the first 4 in the betting with Yorkhill, A Toi Phil and Long Dog.
Yorkhill is shortest of the 3 in the betting and comes here off the back of 2 wins over hurdles, including the Tolworth Hurdle last time out. At more than double the price, A Toi Phil is the one we’d prefer to be on from Mullins’ yard, certainly from a value perspective. After effectively failing to start on his first run for the yard, he’s won 2 from 2, looking mightily impressive last time out on slightly better ground. He’ll be seen in better light on even better ground and there looks to be no doubts about him getting the trip as they went a good gallop in that 2 mile 4 furlong event.
However, they will all have to go some to beat the favourite, Yanworth, from the Alan King stable. He finished 4th in last years Champion Bumper and this season has won all 4 hurdle starts, improving with each run. After 3 runs at the minimum trip, he was stepped up to 2 miles 4 furlong at this track in January. This was a strong Grade 2 race and the pace was solid enough but Yanworth toyed with some good opposition, trotting up by 7 lengths. A repeat of that should be good enough with the only doubt being his effectiveness on the likely better ground. Trading at around Evens, we’ll take a back seat and enjoy a really good novice hurdle.
2.10pm: RSA Chase
Gold Cup hope Don Poli was the first winning favourite of this race in 6 years This year, both More Of That and No More Heroes are vying for favouritism and, at the prices, we can’t be having either of these. Admittedly, More Of That is / has been high class over hurdles having won the 2014 World Hurdle, finishing in front of Annie Power. He’s not been extended on 2 start over fences and has yet to race this far over the bigger obstacles. In a race where dour stayers often prevail ahead of the supposed classier types, we should be prepared to look elsewhere.
No More Heroes has decent credentials but, from a statistics perspective, he has a few key things against him. He has not run this calendar year and is unbeaten over fences. Only Denman and Don Poli have come out of this race having kept an unbeaten record intact and we don’t believe this horse is in the same class. He may also prefer softer ground.
The 2 we think will go well are Blaklion and Vyta Du Roc, the latter of which is our selected bet. Blaklion is a definite stayer and should go very well for the Twiston-Davies yard. He’s been kept going for quite a while this season so we’re a little worries about his freshness and is another who might just want a bit more juice.
Vyta Du Roc is the horse that will carry our hopes. He ran well in the Neptune last year when landing on all fours at the last, spoiling all chances. However, he stayed on really well that day and backed it up with a good 2nd to World Hurdle favourite, Thistlecrack, at Aintree. He opened this season in 2 novice chases over trips on the short side, winning the first and finishing runner up next time. He is better judged though on his run when moved up to 3 miles in the Reynoldstown. He won that day in battling fashion, jumping really well and staying on all the way to the line. That’s exactly the type of horse we like to follow in this race and at the odds, he looks like a solid each way betting proposition. Better ground should bring about improvement too.
Back Vyta Du Roc (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Bet365 (¼ 1-3, BOG)
2.50pm: Coral Cup
Traditionally, this attracts the biggest field of the week and is an all out cavalry charge. You could run this 10 times and get 10 different results and really is a pinstickers race. There are much better betting opportunities this week and it is easy for us to suggest you sit this one out.
If we had to recommend a bet, it would come from one of this lot; Rock The Kasbah, Baron Alco, Baoulet Delaroque and Politologue.
3.30pm: Queen Mother Champion Chase
4.10pm: Cross Country Chase
This race doesn’t really interest us. A cross country chase is not something you see every day and therefore it is difficult to find any value. The best option is to stick with previous years form or the Cross Country Chase that was run here in December.
The favourite Josies Order won that race back in December but the 2 at bigger prices who could the favourite most to worry about are Any Currency and Ballyboker Bridge. Balthazar King, winner of 2 of the past 4 runnings of this race, bids for a hat trick and is fancied at 6/1.
4.50pm: Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
In its 11 runnings so far, we have only seen 2 favourites prevail and 8 of the winners have been at double figure odds, including 2 40/1 winners. This is a race for unexposed 4 year old hurdlers and 7 of the 11 winners have had just the 3 runs over hurdles, the minimum needed to qualify for this race.
Diego Du Charmil and Campeador are the 2 market leaders and neither look obvious bets to us. Diego Du Charmil has run just 3 times in France over hurdles, yet to win and looking like soft ground will be his forte. Hails from the powerful Paul Nicholls yard but is no value in a race with so many unexposed, improving horses on show. The same can be said of Campeador, another to have had just 3 starts. He finished 4th last time in a Grade 2 and, if he settles better than he did that day, he comes here with a chance. Of the 2, we’d prefer to be on the Gordon Elliott trained runner.
At longer odds, we are interested in Dan Skelton’s Kasakh Noir. He’s raced the required 3 times over hurdles and we’ve been impressed every time. His debut at Newbury was very impressive indeed, held up in rear before cruising to the front and winning easily. Some would say he was disappointing next time out but he gave 10lb to Fixe Le Kap and was beaten into 3rd. Kasakh Noir, though, needs to be held up off a fast pace and he was the only horse to make any inroads from the back in a steadily run race. Last time out, he won narrowly against a horse who has since gone well in the Adonis Hurdle. What impressed us there was the race conditions were totally against our horse; small field and steady pace. He looked beaten 2 from home but stayed on well for pressure and those battling qualities, along with the step up in trip, should suit. He will also get a faster pace in a bigger field and he looks a very good each way bet at rewarding odds.
Back Kasakh Noir (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Bet365 (¼ 1-5, BOG)
5.30pm: Champion Bumper
The Bumper is a great race to watch and it will throw up plenty of future top class horses. However, it is not the best betting race as it is all about potential rather than proven form. Before last years winning favourite at 9/2, the previous 5 winners have started at odds of between 14/1 and 40/1. The 40/1 winner you ask? Yes, England’s main hope for the Gold Cup, Cue Card!
If you must bet in this, you are looking for a horse that has won its last start. Willie Mullins has a fine record but, interestingly, very rarely with his first string. Our 2 against the field would be Castello Sforza and Compadre.
