FRI 18TH MAR
The last day of the best race meeting (Cheltenham Festival) of the whole year and it promises to be an absolute classic. We preview all 7 races starting with the big race of the week, the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
3.30pm Cheltenham: Gold Cup
This is generally the most eagerly anticipated race of the whole meeting and this year we appear to have one of best looking renewals we’ve ever seen. Even with the absence of Ryanair winner Vautour, we still have 4 equally matched horses, any of which could go off favourite. Namely, these are the Gigginstown Stud pair Don Cossack and Don Poli, last year’s Gold Cup runner up Djakadam and the English challenger chasing the £1M bonus, Cue Card.
From a statistics perspective, the strongest one appears to be that a previous win or 2nd at the Festival is preferred, yet not in the Gold Cup as 10 of the last 11 winners were running in this race for the first time.
The main trials are either the King George or the Lexus Case, as all but 2 of the winners since the turn of the century have run in one of these, and many of those hadn’t run since. Market leaders do well with 14 of the 15 winners since 2000 starting in the first 3 in the betting, and that’s where we’ll start with our look at the runners.
On jockey bookings, Don Cossack appears to be the leading Gigginstown Stud fancy but we don’t agree. Don Cossack has yet to win at the Festival, falling in the RSA in 2014 and only managing 3rd in the Ryanair 12 months ago when favourite. He is unbeaten when completing since that Ryanair run, with the only blemish when falling 2 out in the King George. To regain confidence, he was given one more run, a 4 runner Grade 2 chase at Thurles in January where he won comfortably but not certainly not as impressive as his odds suggested.
Of more interest is Don Poli, ridden by Davy Russell who has already had 2 winners this week. He is 5 from 6 over fences, a second season chaser (a positive in this race) and won the Lexus Chase last time out, albeit narrowly. Don Poli doesn’t look the most obvious on paper as he never wins all that far nor does he ever look all that impressive but he’s probably the strongest stayer in the field and will be going on when others have cried enough. He is effective on any ground and has a 2 from 2 record at the Festival, taking the Conditional Jockeys hurdle in 2014 and the RSA last year. We feel Don Poli is the most solid of the contenders and he looks sure to be in the first 3.
Djakadam comes here having finished 2nd to Coneygree in this last year but, as has already been highlighted, this is normally a race for first timers. He’s also fallen here, in the 2014 JLT, something which also happened last time out at this track when falling in the Cotswold Chase, a race won by Smad Place. Another negative is his failure to take on the best this term as he has missed 2 main trials and he looks poor value at around the 3/1 mark.
Cue Card would be a great winner for Colin Tizzard, who took the big race on Thursday with Thistlecrack. He is on course for a £1M bonus should he add the Gold Cup to his earlier wins this season in the Betfair Chase and the King George. He goes for a 3rd Cheltenham win and there’s no doubting his ability but the worry is his stamina for an extra 2 furlongs on such a stiff track.
The winner really should come from this 4 and it is difficult to make a case for any others. Carlingford Lough was 9th last year and that sums up his ability whilst Smad Place is just below top class and has yet to win at 5 previous Festivals. Oddly enough, we think On His Own at 66/1, 5th in this last year, is the one that could benefit and run into a place should the market principles fail to live up to expectations. He was 5th last year in this, largely down to his confirmed stamina and he’s likely to be the one outpaced when the race hots up but the one to stay on past beaten horses up the hill.
This is a race to enjoy without having any major financial investment, although we’ll be cheering on Don Poli to run into at least a place.
1.30pm Cheltenham: Triumph Hurdle
Racing gets underway with the 2 mile race for 4 year old hurdlers, the Triumph. Zubayr is the current favourite for the Nicholls yard having won his only start, the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. That form hasn’t particularly been franked and he has questions to answer in a tough event.
Ivanovich Gorbatov is preferred, with Barry Geraghty taking the ride on the AP O’Brien horse. He was a good flat horse, winning a 15 furlong handicap off 97 and won his opening hurdle race at Leopardstown over Christmas on unsuitable ground. He followed that with a disappointing 10 lengths 4th to one of today’s rivals, Footpad, but we should ignore that run as our horse hated the ground and never looked comfortable.
He is a different horse on quicker ground and is a horse that needs them to go a decent clip, which is almost guaranteed in the Triumph. That defeat to Footpad was a slowly run race with only 8 runners whereas his 2 runs prior to that (1 hurdle, 1 flat) had fields of 15 and 18, allowing him to pick his rivals off and win with something in hand.
This certainly isn’t the strongest renewal of the Triumph and, with the market usually holding up in this race, we’ll take Ivanovich Gorbatov to be the most solid of the leading fancies.
WON – Back Ivanovich Gorbatov for a 2/10 stake at 6.50 Skybet (BOG)
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WON – Back Ivanovich Gorbatov (1.30pm, 11/8) / Don Poli (3.30pm, 5/6) for a 2/10 stake to finish in the top 3 double at 4.35 BetVictor
2.10pm Cheltenham: Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle
26 runners for the Vincent O’Brien hurdle would normally make this a no bet race but maybe we’ve gone a bit mad. You’ll certainly think so when you see what we’re backing, a 50/1 shot with no recent form to speak of.
Looking at recent winners of this, Willie Mullins has 3 of the last 7 at odds of 25/1, 20/1 and 10/1 so we shouldn’t be put off by any of his, irrespective of the price, and that leads us to Ivan Grozny. The first thing we’ll say is that he has a similar profile to last years 25/1 winner from the Mullins yard, Wicklow Brave who came here having no form in the current season including being pulled up on his last run. He did then sprint to an 8 length victory to spring a surprise.
Ivan Grozny has similar credentials and we’re surprised to see such odds available. In 2014, as a novice hurdler, he won a 22 runner race before finishing midfield in the Fred Winter having travelled strongly for a long way. His promise was confirmed then at Fairyhouse winning a Grade 3 from the high class Kitten Rock. Ivan Grozny didn’t run for nigh on 2 years but returned in the Coral.ie hurdle in January, normally a key trial for this. He finished down the field in 15th but it is worth noting the in running comments of “going well from 2 out, no extra before last where weakened quickly”. He ran much better than the result suggested and that earnt him a crack at the Betfair Hurdle, the richest handicap hurdle run in Europe. He put up no show but heavy ground can almost certainly be cited as the excuse there.
He is lightly raced, has probably been trained with this in mind, will love the fast pace and gets in here off a lenient looking handicap mark. 50/1 are crazy odds and ones we cannot ignore. He is almost certain to start a good deal shorter come post time.
Back Ivan Grozny (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-5, BOG)
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2.50pm Cheltenham: Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
You need to be a true stayer to land this prize, with 3 miles the trip for novices. Everyone seems to want to be on Barters Hill, unbeaten in 7 career starts. He’s beaten some good types in those races but the suspicion is that Cheltenham may not suit and his front running style may make him a hostage to fortune in this type of race. Shantou Village is the other horse vying for favouritism and you can understand why; back on good ground, his only blemish in a 3 race hurdle career was a 7 length beating by Yanworth. The worry is the trip, now having to go 3 furlongs further than ever before.
The Irish have won the last 2 runnings of this but Willie Mullins has yet to land the prize. This year, he is responsible for 7 runners and it’s one of those that we are keen to support. Gangster, the mount of Bryan Cooper, has leading claims off the back of 3 wins from 4 in the hands of Mullins. That includes a comfortable 10 length win in Grade 3 last time on heavy ground over this trip. That confirmed that he’ll stay and that, along with the turn of foot he possesses after winning over much shorter, gives him leading claims here. Gangster has been off the track since December but he goes well fresh and his trainer had said he was being aimed at this race. Good ground should also eke out further improvement and at the prices, he appears to be the value alternative to Barters Hill.
Back Gangster (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.00 Skybet (1/4 odds 1-3, BOG)
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4.10pm Cheltenham: Foxhunters Chase
This is all about Victoria Pendleton. Should she ride and will she finish are both questions that everyone is asking. She rides Pacha Du Polder, a 25/1 shot, and, for her sake, we hope she exceeds expectations.
That’s about as far as our interest goes in this race as there are much better betting opportunities.
4.50pm Cheltenham: Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
A massive field with 24 conditional jockeys. That’s enough to put me off playing in this race too.
However, as this is the penultimate race of the week, here’s an each way shortlist if you must get involved; Qualando, Laurium, Nabucco and Sky Khan at odds ranging from 10/1 to 66/1.
5.30pm Cheltenham: Grand Annual Chase
The last race of a fantastic week and it’s one we are involved in. We are heading right to the foot of the weights and putting up Dandridge from the Arthur Moore yard, who has won this prize twice before. He’s a 7 year old who has won 3 of his 8 chase starts, and looks to be on the upgrade.
He has been raised steeply in handicap mark but that allows him to take his chance here and get in off bottom weight. His last run was a Class 2 handicap chase at Doncaster in January which he won pretty comfortably. The key to this horse is good ground; in an 18 race career, his record on good (or firmer ground) reads 2-1-2-1-1. That’s some record compared with 1 win (on yielding) and 2 2nds (both on yielding) from his other 13 runs.
He toyed with the runner up in that Doncaster race and when you consider that horse was Just Cameron, 6th in the Champion Chase on Wednesday and ahead of such horses as Dodging Bullets and Sire De Grugy, it makes you believe our selection can defy his new mark.
PLACED – Back Dandridge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 (1/4 1-5, BOG)
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