The Florida Swing begins on the PGA Tour this week when the Cognizant Classic takes place at PGA National as a really good six-week run of tournaments gets underway with what should be four decent days of golf.
Austin Eckroat won this tournament a year ago and he is in the field looking to make a successful title defence but there are some big names on show to open up the Florida Swing so he’ll need to play well to keep hold of the trophy.
Recent Winners
2024 – Austin Eckroat
2023 – Chris Kirk
2022 – Sepp Straka
2021 – Matt Jones
2020 – Sungjae Im
2019 – Keith Mitchell
2018 – Justin Thomas
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 – Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
The Course
We are at the PGA National once again this week. This was renowned for being one of the toughest par 70s on the circuit and that is proven by the winning score often being in single digits, which doesn’t happen very often on the PGA Tour these days, however the tenth has been turned into a par 5 and the rough isn’t as deep so scoring is likely to improve this time around. The trickiness comes in the form of the ‘Bear Trap’ which is the three holes 15-17 where the water is heavily in play and nerves are likely to be jangling, especially if the wind is up like it often is during this stage of the Florida Swing.
You have to strike the ball well around here. Length can come in handy but it doesn’t take priority over accuracy. There is an exposed element to this track so being able to handle the wind is another requisite and as with all tough courses scrambling abilities are essential. You need to play this course from the fairway with pinpoint iron shots and a decent putter the way forward. It is a true all-round test and a great way to start the Florida Swing.
The Field
I think it is fair to say that the fields for the Florida Swing will get better as we go along and with a Signature Event next week and The Players the week after it is understandable that it isn’t the strongest here. It does still carry a pretty strong European charge which is headed up by two men who have a decent record here in Shane Lowry and the former champion Sepp Straka with Nicolai Hojgaard, Seamus Power, Thorbjorn Olesen and Matt Wallace others of note.
The home charge this week is led by another player with a strong record around here in Daniel Berger while Russell Henley will be looking for a big week. Denny McCarthy, Davis Thompson, Jordan Spieth and Cameron Young are some of the other home stars who will be looking for a big week. The international challenge is headed up by Sungjae Im and Taylor Pendrith with Min Woo Lee, Jhonattan Vegas and Christiaan Bezuidenhout some of the others who are teeing it up.
Market Leaders
Shane Lowry is a 20/1 favourite to finally get his hands on this trophy. He was second here in 2022 when a badly timed rain shower got the better of him but he has a couple of top fives since then so there is something about PGA National that brings out the best in him. He arrives here in decent touch too having finished second at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and is probably a worthy favourite but his putter remains too inconsistent for me to get involved in the Irishman.
Sepp Straka, Daniel Berger and Russell Henley are all 25/1 in the betting. I’ll elaborate on the first two down below but Henley is a former champion around here so he definitely ticks the course form box. He has another two top 10s around here and he has already matched that total in tournaments in 2025 as well so Henley is going to be a popular pick this week. That is further the case when you add in that he is a decent ball striker and good putter.
Sungjae Im is the only other player who comes into the week shorter than 30/1 in the betting. He is 28/1 on the best prices. Im is another player who has won around here before and with course form being massive here that should separate him from many in the field. He opened up the season with top four finishes in The Sentry and the Farmers Insurance Open but he has gone a little quiet since then. I wouldn’t expect him to be too far down the field here but I prefer others.
Main Bets
My first main bet this week is a player that I’ve been keen on for the majority of the season in Sepp Straka. The Austrian has already tasted success this season when he won The American Express and he probably should have won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am as well before he stuttered in the final round but he has a win around here and was fifth in his title defence. He is hitting the ball very well and is probably as confident with the putter as he has ever been and he looks a standout bet to me.
Daniel Berger has put himself in contention to win on a couple of occasions with the closest he came coming in Phoenix where he was T2. He has also been second here in the past and has a couple of top four finishes to add to that so he definitely enjoys himself when he gets to this part of Florida. Berger is inside the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee and just outside the top 10 in strokes gained in total on the PGA Tour this season and he looks to be in good enough form to launch another massive challenge here.
Outsiders
Nicolai Hojgaard is ticking the right boxes heading into this tournament. He was T10 in Mexico last week and now sits third in strokes gained in approach and tenth in strokes gained from tee to green on the PGA Tour this season. For a course which is so tough in the long game department that certainly bodes well. Another thing that should help him is he is very good at avoiding bogeys. He doesn’t have as much course experience as I would like him to have but you can’t have everything for an outsider. Even with that lack of course experience I still think he is a solid outsider bet here.
Given that two of the three holes in the Bear Trap are par threes it stands to reason to have someone who is good with the irons on side and Antoine Rozner would certainly tick that box. It might be a little soon in his PGA Tour career for him to contend in an event like this but he is one of the better iron players on the DP World Tour and is probably playing with a bit of freedom this early in the season. He is solid enough off the tee and can handle himself in the wind so there is enough to think he can outrun a monster price here.
Tips
Back S.Straka to win Cognizant Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Berger to win Cognizant Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back N.Hojgaard to win Cognizant Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Rozner to win Cognizant Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
