The last match in the second set of group games in the Copa America takes us back to Las Vegas for the Group D clash between Paraguay and Brazil on Friday night as both sides look to set up their chance to qualify in the last outing.
Paraguay were beaten in their first match against Colombia so they know that they have to avoid defeat here to stay alive in the tournament while Brazil could only manage a point against Costa Rica and won’t want to slip up here.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Premier Sports 1 channel in the UK with the coverage getting started at 1.50am ahead of the 2am kick off.
Paraguay
Paraguay went into this tournament probably lower on expectations from outside their camp than maybe ever before in a Copa America. There were real concerns as to where the goals would come from and that didn’t look ideal on the outside when you consider the group that they landed themselves in. They won’t have been happy to lose the opening game but they offered enough going forward to suggest that they can still be a threat in the competition.
The ironic thing was that while they offered more than their recent form would have suggested in attacking areas of the game against Colombia, their defence, which had been relatively strong in the early part of the World Cup qualifying campaign, was exposed a little too easily in that first game. They have probably run out of the room to just keep things tight here because they need a result but it will be interesting to see if they can find that defensive stability.
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Brazil
It is clear that a lot more was expected of Brazil than we saw in that opening game. They were entitled to be a little rusty with some of their players joining up with the squad a little later than ideal because they went to the Champions League final in Europe in the domestic campaign, but I still think they would have expected to be better than what they showed against Costa Rica. The minimum requirement was to win the match even if it wasn’t convincing.
Brazil have to be better in attack in this match. They will know that. It isn’t good enough to fail to score against Costa Rica, who while they had little intention to come out of their own half, they were never really under wave after wave of pressure. It just highlighted the concern heading into the tournament in that this side lack a potent number nine. We never really got the chance to see what their defence is like but we might see more here.
Betting
This feels like the first trappy match of the Copa America to me. The expectation is that Brazil will win and potentially win quite easily but this is nothing like as good a Brazil side as many who have represented this fine footballing nation in the past. I liked a lot of what I saw of Paraguay going forward in the opening game but whether they can impose themselves on this Brazil side we don’t really know because Costa Rica never really wanted to come out of their own half against them.
One bet I do like here though is for Lucas Paqueta to have a shot on target. He is odds on for this market with every bookmaker apart from Bet365 and I like this for two reasons. James Rodriguez kind of ran riot from the right side of the Colombia attacking unit against Paraguay in the first game while in the Brazil opener Paqueta got into the box regularly and had five shots, although his radar was off as none of them hit the target. He is in that position Rodriguez occupied against Paraguay in the opener and has plenty of quality in him so I’ll back him to sort his accuracy out and find the target here.
Tips
Back L.Paqueta – Over 0.5 shots on target for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
