The second match of the Copa America on Thursday morning sees Ecuador looking to build on their opening draw against Brazil when they take on a Peru side who will be aiming to pick up back to back wins having seen off Haiti in their first game.
Indeed Peru go into this match knowing that if they win the game they will be into the quarter finals but Ecuador will be in a very strong position were they to pick up the three points or even avoid defeat so this one is nicely set up.
Ecuador were one of the form teams in South America going into this tournament and at times you could see why against Brazil. They play a high pressure, pressing game and give opponents little time on the ball but you sensed the absence of Felipe Caicedo was heavily felt.
That said Ecuador felt aggrieved that they didn’t win that match having scored what looked like a perfectly decent goal only to see the officials chalk it off because the ball had apparently gone out when indeed that wasn’t the case.
Peru were easy winners of their opening match and the scoreline really flattered their opponents there. If they had been clinical then they could have run up a really nasty score there and it would have been fully justified.
In the end they had to settle for a 1-0 win thanks to a Paolo Guerrero goal which made him the leading marksman in Peruvian history. Peru will need him to be a threat again here if they are to seal successive wins to begin the tournament.
Team News
As mentioned above Felipe Caicedo is missing for Ecuador in this tournament which is a real blow and it really puts a lot of attention on the likes of Jefferson Montero and Enner Valencia in the forward areas.
Jefferson Farfan is absent for Peru in this tournament so they are without a hugely influential forward of their own which further highlights the need for Guerrero to continue to deliver the goods for this side. He is perfectly capable though.
Head to Head
Peru and Ecuador have met on 48 previous occasions with Peru having 19 wins to the 14 of Ecuador and there have been 15 draws in that time. Looking at that statistic you would think there is little between them but of Peru’s 19 wins, ten of them came in the first 11 matches between the two so now we can see the balance of power has clearly shifted in the direction of Ecuador.
Ecuador lost the last match against Peru but prior to that they had suffered only one defeat in 12 since the turn of the millennium so this is a rivalry which is clearly sided with Ecuador at the current time.
Betting
With that recent record in mind you would think that Ecuador are good things in this match but the thing that is slightly putting me off is that they won’t have been odds on to win too many matches at tournament level so just how much value is in them remains to be seen. That they are a solid side isn’t in question.
The good thing is having backed Ecuador outright I don’t need to push for any cramped value or a price I don’t feel comfortable with, I can just let them win and that is what I will do but I will take a bet in one of the other markets which comes in the form of both teams to score.
I think this is a must win match for Peru. If they only draw here they are a sitting duck I think as Ecuador would have two points with Haiti to play and Peru would have four points with Brazil to play and a goal difference of just +1 so for me Peru have to win this match.
With that in mind I would expect them to be a little more expansive at times and that leaves them open to be picked off by a pacey Ecuador outfit who will be looking to step it up now they have the tougher group game out of the way. 8 of the last 13 meetings between these two sides have seen both of them find the net and I’m expecting them both to do it here too.
Tips
WON – Back Both teams to score for a 4/10 stake at 2.05 with Betfair
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