The 2016 Copa America begins over the weekend and just before it does there is enough time for us to have a look at the top goalscorer market ahead of the off. Some of the best forwards in the world are on show in this tournament so this is going to be a very competitive betting heat.
Main Protagonists
With Argentina heavy favourites to win the tournament it makes sense that their strike force are high up in the betting. Lionel Messi is the 5/1 favourite to be the leading scorer and given his status in the game that certainly comes as no surprise but he doesn’t always do it at the tournaments so you’d be hoping he bucks that trend.
Sergio Aguero is likely to play a little further forward than Messi so he could be the value alternative to the Barcelona star but how much value there is at 7/1 remains to be seen. Gonzalo Higuain is the third favourite at 10/1 but whether the three will cut each other’s throats and share the goals around remains to be seen.
Edinson Cavani is 12/1 to lead the scoring at this tournament with his strike partner Luis Suarez slightly bigger at 14/1. He would be much shorter than that were he not expected to miss the first match so you need to bear that in mind if backing the former Liverpool striker.
Away from Argentina and Uruguay, Alexis Sanchez is 14/1 from Chile while Hulk is Brazil’s greatest threat according to the market. He is 18/1 and then comes Javier Hernandez at 20/1 and it is 25/1 bar those named in what looks a really open heat outside the top four or five.
Betting
I always look for the value in these markets and in order to give us the best chance of finding that value it is important to take someone who is going to start most matches if not all of the matches, who will feature predominantly down the middle and in an ideal world who leads the line on their own so that they don’t lose goals to other forwards.
With all that in mind Carlos Bacca was high up on my shortlist for this tournament and if Colombia were in any other group I would probably take him but they are in the group of death with some decent defences so his early scoring potential could be slightly restricted which isn’t ideal.
Usually I would look at the top end of these markets for a main punt but actually I don’t think there is too much in the way of value about there so I’m just going to take two at decent prices who should give us more than a run for our money because they fit the criteria we’re looking for in the main.
Eduardo Vargas might be overshadowed by Alexis Sanchez in this Chile side but the fact that Sanchez played in the main from the left but goes in search of the ball allows me to think there is enough mileage in Vargas’ potential and his price to justify a punt.
The Hoffenheim forward is in good form at this level at the minute. He was the joint top scorer in last year’s Copa America albeit in a tournament Chile won but he also has three goals in World Cup qualifying too so Vargas is pretty prolific at the minute and that recent form suggests he could carry our hopes nicely at a big price especially if he can fill his boots against Panama and Bolivia.
Paolo Guerrero has nailed the Golden Boot in the last two Copa’s and with that in mind he could be worth a punt here too. The main reason why he is worth support is he will be the focal point of the Peruvian attack with Jefferson Farfan missing this tournament with injury.
It isn’t just the Copa where Guerrero comes to the party. He already has a couple of goals in World Cup qualifying for his country which shows how prolific he is at this level. With Peru in the group which looks like being the highest scoring with Brazil, Ecuador and Haiti opposing them I can see Guerrero getting plenty of chances. If they happen to come out of that group he should have a nice platform to go very close to another Golden Boot so at 66/1 he could be fantastic value.
Tips
WON – Back E.Vargas Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-3)
Back him here:
Back P.Guerrero Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-3)
Back him here:
