It could be a nervy night for the host nation of the Copa America 2016 on Saturday when the USA look to make it into the knockout stages of the tournament. In order to do that they have to avoid defeat to Paraguay in Philadelphia.
Paraguay go into the match knowing their equation is pretty simple. They have to win to go through. Anything else and they will be heading home before the knockout stages get underway and no South American side want to suffer that fate.
The United States produced one of their best performances under Jurgen Klinsmann in their previous match. In many ways they were in the position that Paraguay are in now in that they had to beat Costa Rica or they were out of the tournament. Not only did they win but they won with the sort of performance that really generates interest and belief.
As emphatic as the margin of victory was against Costa Rica, and in no way did it flatter USA, it is important to remember that their form had been patchy prior to that so it will be important for America to back that performance up and win this game not just go through with a draw. A win would create real momentum.
It is fair to say that the luck has eluded Paraguay so far in this tournament. They were unfortunate not to sneak a win in their opening match and having hit the crossbar and laid it down in a big way to Colombia in their second match they were unlucky to lose that game too but all is not lost if they can find a way to win here.
The Paraguayans can take comfort from the fact that Colombia have looked a good side throughout this tournament and might well go deep in it so losing to them is no disaster but given the situation they are in we are going to need to see their very best here to give them the best chance of winning.
Team News
It would be a very strange turn of events if USA change a winning combination from the previous match. They have three players on yellow cards but they don’t have the luxury of being able to rest anyone so I’m expecting the same XI to go onto the pitch.
Paraguay might be forced into going a little more attacking in this match and if they do then Nelson Valdez will surely be given the role of supporting Dario Lezcano. They are forced into one change as Oscar Romero is suspended having been dismissed against Colombia.
Head to Head
This will be the seventh time USA and Paraguay have met and going into the game the record is dead level with two wins each and two draws. Paraguay’s two wins have come in the last two meetings which adds a little psychological effect to the encounter.
Betting
I still don’t rate this USA side but even I’m forced to take a step back in my vociferous opposition of them after the way they destroyed Costa Rica last time out. That said they are in that awkward position here of not knowing whether to stick or twist.
The equation is simple for Paraguay and that is definitely a positive for them heading into the game. While winning any match at this level is never easy it is much easier mentally when you know you have to win instead of focusing on events elsewhere and taking your eye off the ball.
Ultimately I’m not sure how the match is going to go and I don’t fancy making a prediction having got USAs last game completely wrong but I’m fine with that because the way the game is set up I strongly fancy both teams to score.
Paraguay have to score else they are going home so at some point the kitchen sink has to be chucked at America but were they to score the first goal the opposite will happen and America have to push the boat out to score.
If America play to keep a clean sheet it is a risky business and I’m not sure they are good enough to do that so with the necessity that Paraguay have to find the back of the bet I’m happy to take the 4/5 on offer that both sides find the net before the qualifiers from this match are found.
Tips
Back Both teams to score for a 5/10 stake at 1.80 with Skybet
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