It is the penultimate day of group stage action in the Cricket World Cup on Friday with the one match on show seeing Pakistan taking on Bangladesh at Lord’s with both sides rounding off their tournament here.
There is a mathematical equation that allows Pakistan to progress to the semi-finals but it involves them winning by more than 300 runs which isn’t worth even considering so this is the last rites for both at this competition.
AllSportsBetting Podcast
Kev and Steve are back to preview the latest match of the tournament and attempt to decide how this one will be played. Kev explains his three picks for the contest too. Click play on the link below to listen to the full episode.
Pakistan
It has ultimately been a case of too little, too late for Pakistan, whose good work in the second half of the campaign had ultimately been in vain because of the size of the beating they took in their opening match of the tournament. The fact they have rebounded from a tough start to the tournament to win their last three matches says a lot about the new found character of the side, but their mindset will be tested here given the dead rubber nature of the tie.
Another thing you have to give Pakistan credit for was digging in and getting themselves out of major trouble against Afghanistan last time out. We’ve seen sides from their nation fold completely in the past but that they had a relative youngster in terms of experience at this level step up and be counted and get their side over the line speaks volumes. If a few of the more senior options can take some responsibility Pakistan can depart with a win.
Bangladesh
Defeat to India last time out has ended Bangladesh’s chances of reaching the knockout stages but this is a young side on the up and going out with a win should mean a lot to them. Every win they get at this level establishes themselves further and so from that point of view this could be a big match for the Tigers. It was only really conditions that went against them in the game against India earlier in the week so they are not playing badly.
Bangladesh have been a breath of fresh air at times in this tournament with their aggressive batting one of the highlights of the tournament but ultimately the odd moment has cost them. They deserve to go out in style with a win here which would have them leave as the best side not to make the semi-final, which would mean something even though it wasn’t their ultimate aim when the tournament began.
Team News
Mohammad Hasnain has been travelling around the country waiting for a go in this tournament and his chance to shine may well come here. It would take a pretty ruthless team not to play a young lad in a nothing game after he’s carried the drinks all competition. Wahab Riaz may sit out.
Bangladesh are expected to have Mahmudullah back for this match so even though Sabbir Rahman made a decent contribution against India, he is expected to sit this one out. Conditions will dictate whether Mehedy Hasan gets in over Rubel Hossein.
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Betting
I’ll go with three bets in this contest with the first of them being on more than 533.5 runs. I’m guessing this line is as low as it is because the last game here between Australia and New Zealand was low scoring but that was always going to be with the bowlers on show and New Zealand’s batting line up flattering to deceive. I don’t think that will be the case here. I think the batsmen on show are in good enough form for the runs to flow and more importantly I expect the wicket to play well enough for them to as well. Pakistan put up more than 300 in the first match on this ground and with six days without action here I’m expecting a good deck for two lengthy batting line ups to feast on. I’ll take the over there.
One man who I think will score a fair amount of those runs is Mushfiqur Rahim. He has a run line of 28.5 which looks very low. His scores in the tournament, all of which followed a 90 against India in a warm up match, have been 78, 19, 44, 1, 102*, 83 and 24 so he’s been in fine touch. The 19 was when he was sold down the river by his partner and his 24 against India in the week would have been a lot more but for a good piece of fielding. His last five innings against Pakistan have been 51*, 106, 65, 48* and 99 so he likes facing this attack. Rahim is a class act and can pass 28.5 before he leaves the tournament.
Shaheen Shah Afridi has impressed me since he came back into the side. He has taken 3/28 and 4/47 in his last two matches which is no mean effort and has 2/47 on his only previous outing against Bangladesh. I’m guessing that Pakistan will rest one of their experienced seamers here and if they want to give Hasan Ali another game they might even rest both Amir and Wahab. If they do then Afridi will be decent value to be the leading Pakistan bowler at 4/1.
Tips
WON – Back Over 533.5 runs for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
Back M.Rahim – Over 28.5 runs for a 4/10 stake at 1.87 with 888sport
Back him here:
WON – Back S-S.Afridi Top Pakistan Bowler for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 with Betfair
Back him here:
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