It is the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs on the PGA Tour this week with the top 100 in the standings heading to Boston for the Deutsche Bank Championship. At the end of this week only the top 70 will survive so the competition is getting pretty cutthroat at the minute. In order to finish on Labor Day in the US the tournament begins on Friday this week and will conclude on Monday.
The US Ryder Cup automatic qualifiers have been confirmed and Davis Love III will pick the first three of his wildcards at the end of this week so catching his eye could well be on the minds of a number of players here.
Recent Winners
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Chris Kirk
2013 – Henrik Stenson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Webb Simpson
2010 – Charley Hoffman
2009 – Steve Stricker
2008 – Vijay Singh
2007 – Phil Mickelson
2006 – Tiger Woods
The Course
TPC Boston is what I call a real all-rounders course and you can see from the stellar list of names to have won here recently that you often get a good champion here. That is because all parts of the game is tested from clean ball striking off the tee or shaping iron shots and using the contours around the greens to scrambling which is arguably the most important thing of all around here.
The course is a par 71 which measures in total 7,297 yards and it was the third hardest par 71 of the entire season last year. That was in pretty decent conditions too so don’t expect the scoring to be insanely low this week unless the rains around New York on Thursday make their way to Boston.
I always think there is something in this place for the longer hitters. There is a drivable par 4 which helps with that and the longer players can take some of the trouble off of the tee out of play so in the main I’m taking longer hitters but I’m still focusing on scrambling.
The Field
The top 100 in the FedEx Cup standings are eligible for this week but there are some absentees so the field isn’t quite the full number. Despite that there is a cut at halfway where the top 70 players will progress to the final two rounds.
Those absent are Kevin Na, Danny Willett and Alex Cejka with injury, child birth and playing in other events the reason for that but the big five are all here despite the week off not coming at the end of this tournament as it usually does. It will be interesting to see if fatigue comes into play given the hectic schedule over the last two months.
Market Leaders
Jason Day is the 13/2 favourite to win this tournament. He admitted he was all over the place off the tee last week but this course isn’t as punishing if you miss the fairways so he should get away with that. In an around the greens he is a monster so he is probably the man to beat this week.
Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson are second favourites at 12/1. We haven’t really seen the best of Spieth for a while and for that reason I’m not convinced about him here. Johnson’s short game resurgence makes him very dangerous here but his price is skinny given the quality of the field.
Rory McIlroy is a 14/1 shot but he needs to put four rounds together and look convincing in doing it before I get involved in him even at a price which is double what he used to be even for events like this. He is making too many changes for my liking right now.
Henrik Stenson begins the week as an 18/1 chance and if you take him you are taking the risk he finishes the tournament. He has gone public with his knee injury issue after pulling out after 18 holes last week and with the Ryder Cup likely to be his priority he will be taking no risks if he feels the knee at any stage. He’s easy to ignore.
It is 22/1 the field apart from the big five with plenty of other players well worth carrying some money – too many of them to mention. This is nicely set up for a big week.
Main Bets
I’m taking three main bets in this tournament and they all fit the criteria I’ve mentioned above which are either a good all-round game or an excellent ability to scramble. All three have plenty to play for which is important too.
The first bet is on last week’s champion Patrick Reed. We quite often see in these playoffs that those who get the momentum keep it going and go on and really challenge for the overall title and that is what I’m expecting Reed to do. Reed took a while for the door to open in 2016 despite constantly pounding it and now it has I wouldn’t be at all surprised if his next win comes immediately.
Reed sits 16th in the all-around ranking on the PGA Tour and is sixth in strokes gained around the greens and fifth in scrambling. When you put all of that into the mix coupled with the confidence and form he carries from last week he is a big player this week.
Brooks Koepka has qualified for the Ryder Cup side and now he will aim to find a win to go there with. He heads into the tournament third in the all-around ranking on the PGA Tour and we know he has the length to clear the trouble so this course should suit him.
He has been consistent this season without getting that big win but we saw Reed end his wait for a win last week and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the lengthy hitting American follows his soon-to-be Ryder Cup teammate into doing likewise here.
I’m also going to take Matt Kuchar who I’m surprised has never won around here. He has an ideal game for this set up. He might lack a little bit of length but there isn’t too many better iron players in the world than him and his short game is as good as most. He sits in the top 20 in the all-around ranking and his scrambling stats are only so low because of a poor beginning to the year.
He hasn’t made the Ryder Cup team automatically and with a number of players chasing a pick he could really do with a big week. He comes in here off the back of winning that bronze medal at the Olympics and he can follow that up with a big run in this event.
Outsiders
There are a couple of outsiders that I like too and they fit much of the same criteria as I’ve used above. The first of those players is Kevin Kisner, a man just starting to show us his best golf again after a couple of months in the doldrums. Kisner is in the top 25 for the all-around ranking and has a decent short game and putting stroke. His scrambling stats don’t reflect his quality because they are distorted by those poor months but he is more than competent around the greens and should go well here.
The other player I like is Luke Donald. He wasn’t picked for the Ryder Cup team but I’m sure deep down he knows he wasn’t as strong a pick chance as he was being made out to be but he has been coming into a bit of form recently hence why he was talked about and that bodes well here on a course where he has a good record with a number of top 10 finishes despite his lack of length.
That is all based on the quality of his iron game and his short game and those two facets can get him going again this week. Despite his struggles this year he is still fifth in both strokes gained around the greens and in scrambling on Tour and if his long game continues to improve he shouldn’t be far away.
Tips
PLACED – Back P.Reed to win Deutsche Bank Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back B.Koepka to win Deutsche Bank Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back M.Kuchar to win Deutsche Bank Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back K.Kisner to win Deutsche Bank Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back L.Donald to win Deutsche Bank Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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