The DP World Tour stays in the desert this week for the Dubai Desert Classic, one of the longer running events in this part of the world, which is the second Rolex Series of the relatively new campaign.
Viktor Hovland was the champion here a year ago but he isn’t in the field to defend his title so we begin the week knowing we are guaranteed a different winner. With a decent prize pool and plenty of Ryder Cup points up for grabs this should be a very competitive week.
Recent Winners
2022 – Viktor Hovland
2021 – Paul Casey
2020 – Lucas Herbert
2019 – Bryson DeChambeau
2018 – Haotong Li
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Stephen Gallacher
2013 – Stephen Gallacher
The Course
It is once again the Majlis Course at the Emirates Golf Club which is the host course this week. In the main this course has held the tournament every year so the track is well known to the regulars at this event. The course is a par 72 which measures 7,353 yards although in the dry and humid air the course doesn’t play anywhere near that long. Often one defence of this course is the wind although the forecast doesn’t look too bad in that regard this week but there is heavy rain forecast for the first two days so expect tough conditions. .
The rough was grown a little more here last year and it remains to be seen if that was an anomaly or the way this tournament is going to go now. Either way it is probably better to be longer off the tee than accurate but largely this will become a test of the short game whether around the greens or on them. This is now a Rolex Series event so we can expect the cream to rise to the top on a course which allows that to happen.
The Field
The Rolex Series events tend to get the stars out to play and the fact that this is the third big event in the desert in as many weeks certainly helps the strength of the field as well. The standout inclusion is a certain Rory McIlroy who will be looking to win the title for a third time this week. Victor Perez is here looking to complete the Rolex Series double of last week and this one while Ryder Cup stars Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry add further star quality to the field.
With the DP World Tour being a global one these days there is a strong international flavour to the field. Min Woo Lee, former winner Lucas Herbert, Abraham Ancer and Ryan Fox lead the way in that regard while controversial characters such as Patrick Reed, Adrian Otaegui and Lee Westwood are also here. Rising stars Adrian Meronk, the Hojgaard brothers and Richard Mansell are in the field while Sepp Straka, Francesco Molinari and Thomas Pieters also catch the eye.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is an incredibly short 10/3 favourite to win the tournament this week. I’m not saying that isn’t justified but there are reasons to oppose him other than the price. The wet and horrible conditions might be an issue, although if it widens the track it will probably help him but I never like it when he is involved in spats like the one he has become embroiled in with Patrick Reed in the lead up to the week. You would imagine those who have played a desert event will have an advantage on him too. If he wins so be it but he isn’t for me at this price.
Tyrrell Hatton is 12/1 on the best prices this week and you would think that given he is a regular winner of the Dunhill Links which is often played in awkward conditions that the tougher it gets here the better his chances are. Hatton was in the top 10 last week after a slow start and he has three top five finishes here in his last five outings so there is a lot to like about the Englishman who could very quickly become the man to beat here.
Tommy Fleetwood is next in the betting at 16/1 and he is another who you would think would cope fine in the trickier conditions. He could only finish in the middle of the pack in Abu Dhabi last week and only has two top 10s around here which isn’t fantastic for someone who plays the tournament regularly and who has been one of the best on the DP World Tour for much of that time. He feels a little on the tight side pricewise unless the conditions go massively in his favour.
Shane Lowry is the only other man who is shorter than 20/1 in the field this week. He can be backed at 18/1 to win the tournament for the first time. He was right in the mix last week but then produced a horrible final round which would be the first concern about backing the Irishman. The second one would be that he has never finished in the top 10 around here. He should be fine in the tougher conditions but I’d prefer some course form if I was to go in at this price.
Main Bets
Min Woo Lee is certainly a player who is trending in the right direction and if the rain makes the course longer and wider he certainly won’t be disadvantaged. Coming from Australia he isn’t going to be worried by any wind that might get in the way this week. He is in sublime form at the minute with four top eight finishes in his last five starts, three of them in elite company as well. His last three starts were fourth in the Australian PGA, third in the Australian Open and second last week so if that sequence continues then he is due to win this week. He has already won a Rolex Series event in his career so these tournaments aren’t beyond him. He looks a good bet here.
Another player who I think will be suited should this course get longer and wider is Adrian Meronk. He won in Australia at the back end of last year and you don’t win there if you can’t handle difficult conditions. Meronk played well enough at the Hero Cup and then registered a top 10 in Abu Dhabi last week. He clearly likes the desert because he ended last season in the top 10 in the DP World Tour Championship and he was fourth in this tournament last year as well. Meronk is one of the rising stars in Europe at the minute and I think he can enhance his reputation with a decent spin here.
Outsiders
Thorbjorn Olesen feels a big price this week. He is another who has won the Dunhill Links in the past and we know any tough conditions are unlikely to worry him too much. He has a good record around here with four top 10 finishes and he got rid of the rust that might have formed over Christmas last week and I think he’s primed for a decent spin here. Olesen is no stranger to going well in the big DP World Tour events and if the rain widens these fairways the course might setup even better for him than normal. He’s my first outsider bet this week.
I’ll also take a real punt on Eddie Pepperell. There is a strong feeling that Portugal form translates well here and the Englishman has a decent record around there with four top 10 finishes in the last five stagings of that event so that is a positive, as is the fact that he has plenty of form in tough conditions so should the rain and the wind come along that might suit him nicely. Pepperell doesn’t have a brilliant record around here but three years ago he led the field at halfway but couldn’t get the job done over the weekend but those opening 36 holes shows he can score in tricky conditions here. He isn’t as consistent as he was but if something clicks in his game early doors that doesn’t in others he could get into a position where he is dangerous at a monster price.
Tips
Back M.Woo Lee to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Meronk to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Olesen to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back E.Pepperell to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2023
