It is the final week of the Desert Swing on the European Tour this week as Dubai hosts its first event of the season when the Dubai Desert Classic takes place.
After an excellent and exciting week in Qatar last week the attention ramps up a notch again this week with the inclusion of Rory McIlroy in the field and the Northern Irishman will aim to defend the title having won it here 12 months ago.
McIlroy is joined by some big names in Europe in this tournament not least in the form of Henrik Stenson, Martin Kaymer, Graeme McDowell and Lee Westwood among others.
The Majlis course at the Emirates Golf Club in Dubai is the venue for this week’s tournament, as it has been for much of the event’s existence. The course is a par 72 which measures 7,301 yards but as ever it doesn’t play to that yardage with the ball travelling further in the dry air.
This track is faster and firmer than the others on the Desert Swing which means it doesn’t necessarily favour the bombers or the longer hitters. Although the rough isn’t as nasty as some on Tour it still helps to be in the fairways to fire into these firm greens.
Greens in regulation is a key thing this week. The greens are very fast and will roll smoothly but any wayward shots won’t hold the putting surfaces so clean ball striking is very much the order of the day too.
Rory McIlroy is clearly the obvious favourite this week and it is hard to argue with that but he’ll need to putt well this week I suspect if he is going to defend his title. Often playing in last week’s Qatar Masters is a big thing here and Rory skipped that tournament so there might be one or two with better preparation than him going into the week.
I’m going with three main bets this week and the first of those is in the form of Andy Sullivan. The Englishman is really kicking on in his career now after a great year in 2015 and while he hasn’t won this season yet his game looks in really good order.
He went relatively well in the Nedbank before taking the halfway lead in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks ago. He faded in the second half of the tournament but that was a solid effort and gives him something to build on.
We know he goes well in the desert by the way he laid it down to McIlroy in the Dubai World Championship last year and that performance also showed us that he doesn’t melt under the pressure of the big name company.
This course should suit the greens in regulation machine perfectly and if he holes some putts he’s a major player this week.
Only one man hit more greens in regulation last week than Thorbjorn Olesen and that is encouraging for both the Dane and myself as he’s my second pick this week.
I don’t need to wax lyrical about him again after doing so last week but I was so impressed with his temperament and his all round play in Qatar last week that I’m going to chance him again here.
Olesen has a couple of top five finishes around here in the past and the lack of premium on hitting the fairways this week should really assist him even more than it did last week. I’m confident we’ll get another run out of the Danish player.
My final main pick is Graeme McDowell. Those who are looking for long players won’t get near McDowell but I’m a huge fan and I can’t ignore him here.
It is a fair comment to say Gmac isn’t the longest in the field but this isn’t a long golf course and with his game back in good order after a strong end to the last European Tour season and a PGA Tour win under his belt this season I’m more than happy to get involved in McDowell.
When it is greens in regulation you want you always get more than your fair share of them with McDowell and now that we know the putter is co-operating I’m expecting him to build on his top 10 from here last year and launch a real title bid.
I’m also going to have a couple of smaller bets on a couple of outsiders, the first of which being a guy who must feel like this is his home course given his record here. That is Stephen Gallacher.
Gallacher won this tournament in 2013 and 2014 and he was third and second in the two years either side of that so he has effectively only been beaten by three men in four years here which is an incredible record.
You’d be right to say his form has completely gone but it had last year too and he still managed to finish third. There is clearly something about this course that suits his eye line and whatever it is I’m going to pay to see if it can bring the best out of him again this week.
Finally I’m going with the Frenchman who went fairly well last week in Gregory Bourdy. Nobody hit more greens in regulation than Bourdy in Qatar which in that wind was no mean effort and in much calmer conditions this week he should kick on again.
Bourdy is a wonderful striker of the ball and I believe his best performances come on quicker greens where he has no issue with the pace of putts. If that theory is true then he can add another strong effort to last week’s top 15 finish which would have been a lot better had he not had issues with the putter when the wind was blowing.
Back A.Sullivan to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-5)
Back T.Olesen to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
Back G.McDowell to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back S.Gallacher to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-5)
Back G.Bourdy to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-5)
