Australia drew first blood in the Royal London ODI Series when they eased past England at Southampton and they have the chance to take a stranglehold on England when the two sides meet at Lord’s on Saturday.
England head to HQ knowing anything but a win will see them fall two down with three to play and they will be under massive pressure to get something out of the series were that to happen so this is a huge game for the home side.
England were in control of the first ODI halfway through their innings but they couldn’t hold their nerve in the second half of it and paid the price. They also paid the price for a sloppy last 10 overs with the ball so they have some areas they can improve.
I suspect Australia will be quite happy with life. I say that because I don’t think they were at their best in the opening match but still they won it with plenty in hand. Their top order still has plenty more in them and they can bowl better with the new ball.
England surprised a few people by going with James Taylor at three and there is no real reason to change that but Mark Wood isn’t going to play all the series with the workload he has had and with Liam Plunkett and David Willey in reserve he could make way for one of them in this match. With the slope Willey might be preferred to Plunkett.
Australia aren’t likely to make too many changes to a winning side. In an ideal world Shane Watson would put in a good performance but he still offers enough with the bat and the ball to maintain a place in the side. Ashton Agar and Marcus Stoinis may need to wait for an injury or the series to be decided before they get a chance.
Lord’s is the venue for this second ODI. There have been 56 previous ODIs on this ground with England featuring in 48 of them. This isn’t the best ground for them though as they have lost 24 of those matches. Australia are 11-7 with a tie from their 19 matches at the London venue.
The wicket at Lord’s often has something in it for everyone. The batsmen can score when they get in but the bowlers always have some assistance from the slope and there is usually some grass on the wicket to keep the bowlers interested too. As a result a score of 300 is very rare here even in these high scoring days.
With that in mind the sixes line immediately looks a little high again at 8.5. You have to go all the way back to 2004, some 21 matches ago on this ground for the last time there were more than 8.5 sixes and on that day Andrew Flintoff hit seven off his own bat else there wouldn’t have been anywhere near nine or more then.
That famous game between England and India here in 2002 never had more than 8.5 sixes so that line looks way too high especially given the lack of big hitting in the first game. I’m happy to be on the unders again.
Another bet I like the look of is Mitchell Marsh’s performance where the line looks a little low on this occasion. It is set at 38pts which Marsh covered with the bat and in the field in Southampton and just a few runs and a wicket will cover it here as does a good performance with either bat or ball. I like the idea of Marsh’s impact on this game yielding at least 38 performance points.
Back Under 8.5 sixes for a 6/10 stake at 2.00 with Stan James
Back M.Marsh’s Performance – 38 or more points for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Blog cricket YTD: +5.61pts
