England took a 2-1 lead in what is becoming a crazy but fascinating Ashes series when they eased past Australia at Edgbaston and they head to Trent Bridge this week knowing if they can follow that match up with another win they will win the urn back and there is no greater incentive than that.
If they are to win the urn this week they are going to have to do it without Jimmy Anderson and that is a huge blow because Anderson’s record at Trent Bridge is formidable. As ever though it gives the chance for someone else to step up to the plate and grasp their chance. That man is likely to be Mark Wood who missed the last Test but looks set to come back here.
Australia head to the famous Nottingham venue knowing they are in no lose territory for the rest of the series. I think they go there with more issues to address than England have too. They have a captain who is bang out of form and that is never a good thing but the two men who follow him in the batting order are equally badly out of nick so a change up to the batting can’t be ruled out.
Trent Bridge is generally a good venue for England. They have 21 wins to just 16 defeats here with 22 draws although there haven’t been many draws on this ground in recent times aside from last year when the Nottinghamshire groundstaff were heavily criticised for the flat deck they produced. Australia have seven wins, 10 draws and five defeats here. The forecast is good enough and the speed these two sides score I think we can rule the draw out.
In terms of the match betting itself Australia have been ploughed into since the news that Jimmy Anderson will miss this match broke but I’m not so sure I’d be backing Australia just on the evidence of him missing out. We shouldn’t ignore the issues Australia have.
It isn’t just their middle order which is an issue, Clarke has been unable to get control from his bowlers so Australia have more problems than England right now but given the state of the series it would be foolish not to expect some kind of bounce back from the tourists.
With that in mind I’m going to leave the match result alone to begin with but having taken on Adam Lyth last week I’m prepared to do so again. I actually think he might find a few more runs on this ground but I’m still not convinced he’ll score a substantial amount so rather than take the under on his runs line which has tightened a little bit since last week I’ll take Rogers to cover a first innings handicap against him.
Chris Rogers has been on fire in the first innings of this series so far. He has scores of 95, 173 and 52 in the Tests so far and also has an 84 in one of the tour matches. Rogers also has scores of 180, 48, 50 and 51 for Middlesex on this ground so we should expect him to go well. He gives Lyth 8.5 runs in the first innings but given that Lyth hasn’t gone above 12 in the first innings in a Test away from his home ground the Australian veteran should have enough in hand to give him that start and beat him.
Another bet I like is Stuart Broad’s performance. He has always been overshadowed on his home ground by his opening partner Jimmy Anderson but here is the chance to escape from Anderson’s shadow and show everyone what he can do here. His line is 110pts so with him going better with the bat and not having Anderson taking his wickets with the ball I like the idea of him covering that.
Broad covered this line in the opening two Tests and would only have needed 19 runs in the final innings to cover it at Edgbaston too. Anderson took six wickets in the first innings at Edgbaston but he won’t be doing that here and Broad’s performance total can benefit from that.
My last bet is an attempt to take advantage at Ladbrokes’ return to an each way option with their top batsman market. Trent Bridge can deliver some low scores with the new ball swinging and seaming and players down the order can go well here.
Last year Bhuvneshwar Kumar would came third for India batting at number nine and Jimmy Anderson came second for England in the first innings at number 11. Two years ago Ashton Agar top scored in Australia’s first innings here despite batting at number 11 so that proves that someone down the order can get among the places if not actually win.
If we remember that Moeen Ali is a genuine batsman you would have to say he has every chance here. He was second in England’s first innings at Edgbaston last week and given the recent history of this ground he looks overpriced at 16/1 given that he may not be as disadvantaged by being down the order here as on some grounds.
Back C.Rogers (-8.5 runs) to beat A.Lyth (1st inns only) for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Ladbrokes
Back S.Broad’s Performance – 110pts or more for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back M.Ali Top England 1st inns batsman (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Ladbrokes (1/5 1-3)
Blog cricket YTD: -1.24pts
