Sweden have the chance to come out on top in Group E of Euro 2020 on Wednesday afternoon when they play their final match of the section against a Poland side who have to win in Bucharest to qualify for the next round.
Sweden know that whatever happens here they are already through to the next stage of the competition but only a win will do for Poland so this should be an interesting watch to see how the Poles go about their business.
Where to watch
This match will be shown live on the ITV4 channel for those of us who are in the UK. The lead up to the action begins at 4.15 and there is a 5pm kick off UK time in Bucharest.
Sweden
You can’t say it has been pretty to watch but Sweden go into this final match of the group on top of the table courtesy of a win and a draw from their two matches. They have been defensively proficient throughout the tournament, containing Spain as well as they could and coming out with a 0-0 draw. They then used that defensive base to keep things tight against Slovakia and then when they tired picked them off in the second period.
There is no point in criticising that. It is how they play but it is frustrating when you see the quality that the likes of Alexander Isak possesses that he doesn’t get the opportunity to do his thing as much as he should. He might get it here though because Poland have to come after the Swedes in this match which could just play into the hands of the World Cup quarter finalists. A win for Sweden here would give them an easier path in the knockout stages.
Poland
This is beginning to look like yet another tournament campaign to forget for Poland. They went out of the World Cup in the group stage and unless they can find a win against Sweden here they will suffer the same fate in this tournament too. They couldn’t have got off to a worse start when they lost to Slovakia in their opening match. It looked like the competition was too much for them but to their credit they got a very good draw out of Spain to keep them in the competition.
Robert Lewandowski announced himself to the tournament in that match and that is a huge thing for Poland because he hasn’t really done it at tournament level in the past. They will need to defend better in this match though if they are to pick up their win because you get the feeling that in normal circumstances Poland are going to find it hard to break this Swedish defence down twice. That back door has been an issue since the turn of the year though which doesn’t bode well for them.
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Team News
Sweden could choose to make a switch up front where it hasn’t really happened for Marcus Berg in the tournament just yet. Robin Quaison has impressed from the bench in the two matches and could be rewarded with a start. Albin Ekdal is a doubt for the Swedes.
Poland will welcome midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak back from suspension for this match and it might be that Karol Linetty, the scorer of the Poland goal in the opening match of the tournament, gets a recall after dropping to the bench for the Spain game.
Betting
I’m already on Sweden to win this match as I have backed them to win this group and they are guaranteed to do that if they win this one so I’m effectively on them at 13/2. I’m not going to go in on them again therefore even though I do think they will pick the Poles off at some point and come out on top. I will take my chance at an anytime scorer though who is massively overpriced based on what we’ve seen in the group so far.
Poland’s defence has looked very ordinary so far in this competition, especially down the flanks which isn’t a surprise for a team who are getting used to the transition to three at the back. They actually play a winger at right wing-back in Kamil Jozwiak and he might get found out here. That makes me think that the 9/2 on Emil Forsberg to score anytime is a little out of line. He’ll cut in from that left side like we saw Robert Mak do to such great effect for Slovakia in the opening game. Forsberg can score from inside or outside the box and as we saw against Slovakia in the previous game he is on penalties for Sweden. He looks a huge price given the weakness down the Poland right.
Tips
Back E.Forsburg to score anytime for a 1/10 stake at 5.50 with BetVictor
Back him here:
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