Group D will be decided in Euro2016 on Tuesday night when the final set of matches take place. Two sides who are as good as through are Spain and Croatia and they meet each other in Bordeaux to decide who will win the group.
Spain only need to avoid defeat to top the table while Croatia have to win to pip them to top spot. If the match ends in a draw then Croatia will be guaranteed second in the table and will face Italy in the last 16.
I’ve really enjoyed watching Croatia in this tournament. They have defended when they have had to but they have got plenty of men in forward areas and attacked with pace and purpose and if they can win this match and get themselves into the top half of the draw they could go a long way in the competition.
If Croatia are to go deep you would think they will need to get some goals into Mario Mandzukic or one of the other strikers as they can only rely on their midfield for so long. They need to find more steel too as we saw against the Czech Republic.
Key Man
Darijo Srna was overcome with emotion during the national anthem of the previous game which was understandable with all that had gone on in his world in the last week or so but he’ll have to be switched on fully here as an awful lot of defending to do. Most of Spain’s attacks come down the left hand side so Srna will need to snuff those out while still trying to get forward and support the attacks.
The Spanish have won both their matches to date in the tournament and as such they are guaranteed a place in the knockout stages. If they avoid defeat here they win the group and don’t run into Italy in the second round and that should act as all the incentive they need.
Spain have seen a lot of the ball so far in the tournament but we’ve not really had the answers to the questions we had about them going into the competition. Do they have a goalscorer for the big matches? And are they defensively solid enough? We might get some of the answers to those questions in this one.
Key Man
Andres Iniesta has shown he’s still one of the best midfielders in Europe in the two matches so far and he is the one who can pull the strings in this match. He is so good on the ball and his movement pulls defenders away from the danger area. Keep your eye on him as he’ll have a major impact here.
Team News
Croatia look set to be without Luka Modric who picked up an injury in the previous match. That is a worry for them because they collapsed in a heap when he went off. Vedran Corluka is a doubt too having taken a couple of blows to the head in the tournament so far.
Spain have a chance to rest players here. Sergio Ramos is on a booking so it makes no sense for him to play with Spain already through. The likes of Cesar Azpilicueta, Pedro, Koke and Hector Bellerin could all come into the side to get some game time ahead of the knockout stages.
Head to Head
There have been five previous meetings between the two sides. Croatia won the first one but haven’t won since. Spain have won three of the four games since then with one draw as well. The last time they met was in this tournament four years ago when Spain by the only goal of the game.
Betting
All through the tournament I’ve fancied Croatia for this match and this group and although they gave up a good position in their match against the Czech Republic last time out they do still win the group if they win this match.
I’m already on that outcome from before the group stage began so I’ve no need to bet on this match. I might have chanced Croatia again if they had Luca Modric and if he does start then I might get involved again but for now until we know for sure if he is available I will sit this one out in the hope that Croatia deliver my original group bet.
Tips
No Bet
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