Northern Ireland gave themselves a chance of qualifying for the knockout stages of Euro2016 when they saw off the Ukraine at the weekend but to be certain of going through they have to beat Germany in their final group match on Tuesday afternoon.
Germany know that a draw sees them safely into the last 16 and a win would sew up the group unless Poland do some real damage to Ukraine in the other game in the section.
All the soundbites that came out of the Irish camp after their first match was how disappointed they were with their performance and that was actually good to hear because it showed they are not here just to make up the numbers. We saw that with our own eyes in the second match when they were terrific against Ukraine in horrific conditions.
The match against Ukraine was the Northern Ireland we’ve come to know and admire. They were solid defensively, threatening when they had the ball in the opponents’ half and a genuine danger at set pieces and a repeat of that will give them every chance here.
Key Man
Oliver Norwood is the set-piece man for Northern Ireland and his delivery is going to need to be spot on in this match especially if they end up needing a goal to go through. He keeps the ball well too though and protects the defence and if he can keep Mesut Ozil quiet that will go a long way to The Northern Irish getting a result.
We haven’t seen the best of the Germans in this tournament yet. In fact we’ve probably seen them as bad as they are going to be. They saw off Ukraine in their opening match but for 20 minutes they were really pegged back while Poland missed some golden chances to beat them in their last match.
Clearly Germany will have plenty of improvement in them. They might not need it here but if they are to go on and win the tournament they will have to get better defensively because as good as he is there is only so long that Manuel Neuer can keep bailing his defenders out.
Key Man
Northern Ireland set up very defensively so it might be that the onus is on Sami Khedira to get forward and complement the attacking players. If Kroos and Ozil are to be marked tightly there will be space for Khedira to work and he is plenty good enough to take advantage of that. Expect a big game from the Juventus man.
Team News
You would think Northern Ireland will set up for defensively in this match and use Kyle Lafferty as a target man again so expect him to return to the side. Paddy McNair could also be recalled to add another defensive player to the unit.
Germany need to make something happen in terms of putting out a sounder for the knockout stages. Now could be the time to employ the services of Mario Gomez particularly with Northern Ireland likely to defend so deep.
Head to Head
This will be the first time these two nations have met since 2005. In all Northern Ireland have beaten Germany twice but suffered eight defeats. The two have drawn on four occasions too. Germany have won the last four matches between the two and you have to go back as far as 1983 for the last time a Northern Irish side beat Germany.
Betting
I guess most people expect a German steam roll job here but I’m not sure I see it that way. If there is one thing we’ve seen from Northern Ireland in this tournament so far it is that they can defend and limit opposition chances and in all fairness Germany haven’t looked all that fluent in attack even allowing for the class of Kroos and Ozil.
Northern Ireland are a very organised side and I can’t see them pushing the boat out too early here. A point for them would move them to four points with a positive goal difference and if that isn’t enough to qualify I would be very surprised. Germany don’t have to win the game either which is important.
As it goes I think Germany will win the game but the longer it goes at 0-0 the more the potential for this one to fizzle out a little bit in that a draw suits both sides. If I was going to back Germany to win I’d probably do them to win to nil but in the end I’ll side with under 2.5 goals as that keeps the 0-0 on our side.
I fancy this one will go much like NI’s match with Poland went in that Northern Ireland will defend deep and soak up pressure but not really offer too much the other way apart from the odd set-piece or counter attack.
Tips
WON – Back Under 2.5 goals for a 4/10 stake at 1.95 with Boylesports
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