24 nations arrived in France earlier in the month dreaming of European Championship glory and those dreams remain intact for just eight sides now as we get ready to begin the quarter finals of Euro2016.
The tournament has been very good to this point and it is set to reach a crescendo very nicely over the next week or so leading up to the final a week Sunday. The opening quarter final sees Poland taking on Portugal in Marseille on Thursday night.
The Poles had to come through a penalty shootout to make it into this quarter final. In truth they shouldn’t have gone anywhere near a shootout because they should have been out of sight by halftime against Switzerland but a failure to take chances nearly cost them dearly but thankfully from their point of view they got it done in the end.
Poland have missed chances throughout the competition and you would think that will cost them eventually but on the plus side they have conceded only one goal in four matches so far and that was probably the goal of the tournament so it isn’t all doom and gloom for them.
Key Man
We keep waiting for Robert Lewandowski to explode into life but the chances keep falling to Arkadiusz Milik. As it goes I think he is the key man here anyway because this Portugal defence don’t like being moved around and Milik has the movement and the thought of mind to get into dangerous positions, positions the defence don’t want him to be in. He’ll be crucial to Poland’s chances.
It seems as if Portugal are seeing how far they can go in this tournament without winning a single match. They’ve made it to the quarter final so far without winning one and it remains to be seen just how far they get before a 90 minute result comes either way.
Not many gave Portugal much of a chance in their match with Croatia but we were wary of the possibility of the upset and we’re cagey about Portugal’s chances here too. With Cristiano Ronaldo in your side you always have a chance even though the Real Madrid star hasn’t been at his best so far in the tournament.
Key Man
With Ronaldo being the obvious pick maybe the key man can be the Bayern Munich youngster Renato Sanches who has really impressed in cameos off the bench. It would be a big game to put Sanches into from the start but there is no doubt he is good enough. If he comes off the bench though against a defence that visibly tired in their previous match he can terrorise them to good effect.
Team News
Poland look set to be without their keep Wojciech Szczesny once again as he is still not over the injury which he picked up in the opening match. They do have Bartosz Kapustka back from suspension and he could go straight back in.
Portugal are keeping their eye on the fitness of Raphael Guerreiro and Andre Gomes who have been nursing niggles for much of the tournament. If they pass fitness tests then Portugal will have a full squad to choose from.
Head to Head
There have been 10 previous meetings between these two with the overall record reading 4-3 to Portugal with three draws, two of which have come in their last two matches. In fact Portugal have surprisingly only won one of the last five matches between the two nations. That is a run that they will be out to end here.
Betting
Of the four quarter finals I think this one might be the toughest to bet on because neither give much help in the department we want help in and ultimately I think this could come down to which defence do you trust the most?
Poland have only conceded one goal in the tournament so far but Ukraine probably aren’t sure how they never scored against them and Switzerland peppered their goal for an hour or so including extra time so you need to real leap of faith to trust Poland here I think.
You’re not swimming against the tide siding with Portugal’s defence. It has just shut out a rampant Croatia heading into their match in the previous round and I have to think they have the personnel and the tactical ability to keep Poland quiet too. If they do that then I believe they have enough about them to get something at the other end.
Ultimately there are just a few too many questions to answer there which might make for a match every bit as tight as expected so with that in mind I’m not going to go mad here. Backing both via penalties worked for me in the Copa America final and I will take that angle again.
Tips
Back Poland to win on penalties for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 with Paddy Power
WON – Back Portugal to win on penalties for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 with Paddy Power
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