For the second time in six days Wales face their biggest night on a football pitch in their history when they take on Portugal in the semi-final of the European Championship in Lyon. This is very much unchartered territory for the Welsh but nobody can accuse them of not deserving to be here because they do.
Portugal are no strangers to making it this far in the European Championship. This is the fifth time they have made it this far in the tournament but they will probably know they only time the progressed beyond this stage was when they hosted the tournament in 2004 and then they lost to Greece in the final.
The detractors of the Portuguese side rightly claim that they haven’t won a match at the tournament yet but that is all irrelevant really. Italy and Belgium had both won three matches in the competition but only one of the three are still here and it isn’t them. It isn’t about how you win it is making sure you do win and you have to give Portugal credit for recovering from an early setback in their match with Poland in the quarter final.
If there is a concern for Portugal for the remainder of the tournament then it comes in the fact that they haven’t really clicked up front just yet and you would think if they are going to win the competition then they will have to do that at some point from here on in.
Key Man
We had Renato Sanches as our key man in the previous round and it was he who fired the equaliser that earned Portugal spot kicks. It wasn’t just his goal that impressed us. He is comfortable on the ball, makes things happen and always looks to do something positive and against a Wales defence that is likely to be all around Cristiano Ronaldo it could be the Bayern Munich man who benefits.
The way Wales blew Belgium away in the previous round was a joy to behold. It was the performance of a side who truly believe they can go all the way and if anyone in their camp didn’t believe it before that match they surely must do now because they took on one of the highest ranked sides and outplayed them for long periods.
Wales kept up their record of scoring in every round with three goals against Belgium in the quarter final but few gave them a chance in that match, not on this site as we were fully behind Wales, but in the wider world. That isn’t the case here though. People genuinely talk about Wales having a great chance of winning. That might not suit them.
Key Man
Obviously all eyes will be on Gareth Bale but whenever Jonny Williams has been on the pitch he hasn’t let Chris Coleman or his teammates down and he is capable of getting into pockets of space and with the comfort he has on the ball it wouldn’t be a surprise if he fashions space for a shot or slides someone else in on goal. If Portugal focus too much on Bale it could be to Williams’ advantage.
Team News
Portugal will definitely be without the suspended Wiliam Carvalho so it would be most likely that Danilo will play the role of holding midfielder from the beginning. The Portuguese also have a significant injury concern over Pepe but Raphael Guerreiro and Andre Gomes are over the injuries which kept them out against Poland.
Wales will be without two key men in Aaron Ramsey and Ben Davies. It could be that Chris Gunter moves back into the centre of defence and Jazz Richards starts on the right but it is more likely that James Collins will come in as a like for like replacement for Davies. Dave Edwards, Andy King and Jonny Williams will be vying for Ramsey’s spot.
Head to Head
These two sides have only met three times in their histories and this is by far and away the biggest match they have ever played. Wales won one of those three matches but it was right back in 1951. Portugal have won the other two with their most recent battle being a friendly in 2000 which they won 3-0 with Luis Figo among the goalscorers that day.
Betting
I’m expecting a tight match here I have to say. The reward for progressing is just too big for it to be anything but tight and cagey and the disappointment of losing this close to the final is too strong to bear thinking about so I’m not expecting many risks to be taken here and it might well be that a moment of magic decides it.
Wales have been brilliant in this tournament but I do fear for them here. Aaron Ramsey is going to be a really big loss and for all they’ve done well in this tournament it has generally been when they have been considered to be huge underdogs but people are giving them every chance here and when they were genuine favourites against Northern Ireland and when they talked themselves up as favourites against England they couldn’t perform.
Portugal haven’t gone in for any of that nonsense but while it is true they haven’t won a match at this tournament yet they did manage to keep Croatia quiet in the last 16 and apart from the opening two minutes against Poland they were comfortable in that game too.
I’m not convinced that Wales breakthrough in this match. Portugal are tactically astute enough to do what they need to at the back but I think they will see enough of the ball in the match to make a difference with it in the end. I don’t expect any huge margins or anything like that but when this one ends I fancy Portugal will have edged it.
In terms of bets I like Portugal to win by one goal. That is a system which has been profitable for us throughout the tournament and I’m happy to return to it here and I’m going to chance the match is level at half-time before Portugal sneak ahead in the second half.
Tips
Back Portugal to beat Wales by 1 goal for a 3/10 stake at 3.75 with Paddy Power
Back them here:
WON – Back Draw/Portugal HT/FT for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 with Unibet
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THERE ARE LOTS OF OFFERS FOR THIS MATCH!!!
LINK TO OFFERS:
PORTUGAL vs WALES – MATCH OFFERS
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