It is the biggest game in living memory for the Welsh on Friday night when they take on Belgium in the quarter final of Euro2016 for the right to face Portugal in the semi-final. Wales are stepping into unchartered waters now but are beginning to exude plenty of confidence while Belgium showed signs in the previous round of a side coming to the boil nicely. This one is well set up.
Wales have resembled a bit of a yoyo in this tournament so far. They were up against Slovakia in their opening match and then down against England then raised it again to see off Russia in some style in the final group game but you would have to say they looked like a side in their shell against Northern Ireland in the last 16.
The constant in those results were they have won the matches they were the heavy underdogs in and struggled in the ones they were the favourites for. You could argue they weren’t bookmakers favourites against England but they hyped themselves up to be and fell flat on their face. Being the underdogs here is a good position for them I think.
Key Man
Clearly Gareth Bale is going to be crucial for Wales but Aaron Ramsey might go unnoticed with the Belgians who use their defensive resources to keep Bale quiet. The Arsenal midfielder had an excellent match against Russia and was dangerous at times against Northern Ireland. With Belgium having issues down their left hand side Ramsey could well stand out for footballing reasons and not just the stupid haircut he is sporting.
If anything Belgium have been the complete opposite to Wales for the most part. They have been favourites in all four matches they have played in the tournament to date but the only times they have looked convincing was the second half against Republic of Ireland and against a Hungary side who were soon out of their depth in the last 16.
Belgium were given a bit of a lesson by Italy in their first match and laboured against Sweden in their final group game and I’m far from convinced that they enjoy being the favourites. For most of this tournament Belgium have looked like a team of individuals rather than a collective team but they will need to be as one here.
Key Man
Eden Hazard was superb against Hungary and he’ll be out to replicate that performance here. He’ll be up against Chris Gunter who has struggled defensively and that is a match up that the Chelsea man can win and if he does it will go a long way to securing the win for Belgium.
Team News
Wales had all sorts of concerns over Ashley Williams and the shoulder injury he picked up against Northern Ireland but the captain has been passed fit to play here so Wales could be unchanged for this one.
Belgium had a scare with Eden Hazard but he has come through to be able to play but they will be without the injured Jan Vertonghen who has been ruled out of the tournament with damaged ligaments and also Thomas Vermaelen who picked up a second booking against Hungary so he will miss out.
Head to Head
Wales have won four of the 12 meetings between these two sides through the years and are undefeated in the last three but it is Belgium who have five wins so just edge the head to head overall. They have played out three draws including in Brussels in qualifying for this tournament. Wales won the reverse meeting 1-0 in Cardiff.
Betting
I expect this to be a tight match between two sides who can keep things tight defensively and look to score on the break but I like the situation Wales are in here. Twice Belgium have been the favourites against Wales and expected to beat them in the last 18 months or so and twice they have fell flat on their face.
I don’t think that is too much of a surprise. Wales are defensively sound and their three centre backs nullify the threat of the Belgian wingers looking to come inside and get shots or passes off and with two defensive midfielders in front of the defence there isn’t any space for Belgian forwards to work with either.
The other reason to like Wales is because of the defensive reshuffle that Belgium are going to have to overcome with Vertonghen and Vermaelen both missing. Laurent Ciman is likely to replace Vermaelen at centre half but he has mistakes in him and whoever plays left back is going to be inexperienced and this is a huge game.
I fancy Wales to win this if they show the necessary positivity but we shouldn’t forget how big a match it is for them too so there is a chance they might clam up and not express themselves as they have at various times in this tournament. I think they can keep Belgium out but just in case they can’t find the net in the 90 minutes I’ll take Wales on the Asian lines which has us winning should it end all square as well as with a Wales win.
As we’ve already started the quarter finals well I’m going to put my money where my mouth is and have a small punt on Wales to qualify too at a price which is actually what I would have them as to win in 90 minutes.
Tips
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WON – Back Wales to Qualify for a 2/10 stake at 3.50 with Skybet
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